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Some things to expect in 2025

(lwn.net)
258 points signa11 | 3 comments | 16 Jan 25 22:55 UTC | HN request time: 0.018s | source
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openrisk ◴[17 Jan 25 10:12 UTC] No.42735951[source]▶
Overwhelming fraction of comments focus on the "AI contributed code" while back to reality:

> Global belligerence will make itself felt in our community. The world as a whole does not appear to be headed in a peaceful direction

If the geopolitical landscape continues deteriorating the tech universe as we knew it will cease to exist. Fragmentation is already a reality in egregious cases but the dynamic could become much more prevalent.

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1. The_Colonel ◴[17 Jan 25 11:19 UTC] No.42736380[source]▶
Kinda depends on what you mean exactly. For example, open source world will likely not be affected aside from a few cases like the Russian Linux developers. Neither China nor Russia are likely to completely block access to internet and developers won't have any incentives to do isolate themselves.
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2. openrisk ◴[17 Jan 25 12:39 UTC] No.42736906[source]▶
That sounds quite optimistic. It doesn't take complete blocking before there are significant implications. There are many aspects to consider, from more friction in getting access to distribution channels to the more fundamental "forking" of initiatives and visions. This might be already happening to some degree but is hard to quantify.
replies(1): >>42736991 #
3. The_Colonel ◴[17 Jan 25 12:50 UTC] No.42736991[source]▶
> It doesn't take complete blocking before there are significant implications.

Mostly for consumers. Advanced users in e.g. China (likely in Russia as well) use VPNs routinely already.

> from more friction in getting access to distribution channels to the more fundamental "forking" of initiatives and visions

What's in it for the devs/companies to fork just because of the geopolitical situation? A fork means more work, more costs. In some cases, like the Linux kernel, Russian companies (Baikal) are forced to fork, but I don't seem them doing this on a massive scale for projects where they don't have to.

I think there is some parallel development going on in China, but that's more because of the language/cultural barrier and has always been so, so I don't expect a major change.