Be Aware of the Makefile Effect

And everybody will clap and will listen to me, and I will get promoted.

...Get real, dude. Your comments come across a bit tone-deaf. I am glad you are in a privileged position but you seem to have fell for the filter bubble effect and are unaware to how most programmers out there have to work if they want to pay the bills.

For everything else, there's MasterCard.

Steam engines used to be very inefficient, in part because the underlying thermodynamic principles were not understood, but also because learning to build safe ones (largely a question of metallurgy) took a long time. Does that mean that designing them before those principles were known was "not engineering"? That seems like obvious nonsense to me.

Not everyone has a position where they have the autonomy to spend a lot of effort on paying down technical debt, but some people do, and almost every programmer has a little.

I think it's important to keep in view both your personal incentive system (which your boss may be lying to you about) and the interests of the company.

No. I'll let my body wither and get spent before my spirit breaks. I refuse to just "accept" things. There's always something you can do.

BTW is that not what HN usually preaches? "Change your job to a better one" and all that generic motivational drivel [that's severely disconnected from reality]? Not throwing shade at you here in particular, just being a bit snarky for a minute. :)

RE: your final point, I lost the desire to keep view of both my personal and my company's incentive systems. Most "incentive systems" are basically "fall in line or GTFO".

Before you ask, I am working super hard to change my bubble and get a bit closer to yours. To say it's not easy would be so understated so as to compare the description of a lightning hit on you and you enduring the said lightning hit. But as said above, I am never giving up.

But... it's extremely difficult, man. Locality and your own marketing matter a lot, and when you have been focused on technical skills all your life and marketing is as foreign to you as are the musical notes of an alien civilization... it's difficult.

RE: unfixably broken, well, not necessarily in concept but de facto you are sadly correct. Most people resist even the provably good changes.

If the steam engine was invented after those discoveries about steel, I would certainly hope it would be factored into the design (and perhaps used to make those early steam engines less prone to exploding).

...the very definition of brokenness :D Not much of a (good) choice there...

People quit building coal burning power plants in North America at the same time they quit burning nuclear power plants for the same reason. The power density difference between gas turbines and steam turbines is enough that the capital cost difference is huge. It would be hard to afford steam turbines if the heat was free.

Granted people have been building pulverized coal burning power plants in places like China where they'd have to run efficient power plants on super-expensive LNG. They thought in the 1970s it might be cheaper to gasify coal and burn it in a gas turbine but it's one of those technologies that "just doesn't work".

Nuclear isn't going to be affordable unless they can perfect something like

https://www.powermag.com/what-are-supercritical-co2-power-cy...

If you count the cost of the steam turbine plus the steam generators plus the civil works to enclose those, nuclear just can't be competitive.

However, there are also some errors.

In 02022 24% of total US electrical power generation capacity was combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54539 which run the exhaust from a gas turbine through a boiler to run a steam turbine, thus increasing the efficiency by 50–60%. So in fact a lot of gas turbines are installed together with a comparable-capacity steam turbine, even today.

Syngas is not a technology that "just doesn't work". It's been in wide use for over two centuries, though its use declined precipitously in the 20th century with the advent of those natural-gas pipeline networks. The efficiency of the process has improved by an order of magnitude since the old gasworks you see the ruins of in many industrial cities. As you say, though, that isn't enough to make IGCC plants economically competitive.

The thing that makes steam engines economically uncompetitive today is renewable energy. Specifically, the precipitous drop in the price of solar power plants, especially PV modules, which are down to €0.10 per peak watt except in the US, about 15% of their cost ten years ago. This combines with rapidly dropping prices for batteries and for power electronics to undercut even the capex of thermal power generation rather badly, even (as you say) if the heat was free, whereas typically the fuel is actually about half the cost. I don't really understand what the prospects are for dramatically cheaper steam turbines, but given that the technology is over a century old, it seems likely that its cost will continue to improve only slowly.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost...

as if 1.5 hours of storage was going to cut it. I've been looking for a detailed analysis of what the generation + storage + transmission costs of a reliable renewable grid is that's less than 20 years old covering a whole year and I haven't seen one yet.

To be honest, I don't think anyone has any idea yet (other than crude upper bounds) because it depends a lot on things like how much demand response can help. Demand response doesn't have to mean "rolling blackouts"; it could mean "running the freezer during the day when electricity is free". Will people heat their houses in the winter with sand batteries? Will desiccant air conditioning pan out? Can nickel–iron batteries compete economically with BYD's gigafactories? What about sodium-ion? Nobody has any idea.

I was pleased to calculate recently that the EV transition, if it looks something like replacing each ICE vehicle with the BYD equivalent of a Tesla Model Y, would add several hours of distributed grid-scale storage, if car owners choose to sell it back to the grid. But that's still a far cry from what you need for a calm, cloudy week. Maybe HVDC will be the key, because it's never cloudy across all of China.

Sensible-heat seasonal thermal stores for domestic climate control (in some sense the most critical application) have been demonstrated to be economically feasible at the neighborhood scale. PCM or TCES could be an order of magnitude lower mass, but would the cost be low enough?

I'm pretty sure that the original meme was «In God we trust; for everything else, there’s American Express» (with or without cocaine).