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623 points magicalhippo | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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Karupan ◴[] No.42619320[source]
I feel this is bigger than the 5x series GPUs. Given the craze around AI/LLMs, this can also potentially eat into Apple’s slice of the enthusiast AI dev segment once the M4 Max/Ultra Mac minis are released. I sure wished I held some Nvidia stocks, they seem to be doing everything right in the last few years!
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dagmx ◴[] No.42619339[source]
I think the enthusiast side of things is a negligible part of the market.

That said, enthusiasts do help drive a lot of the improvements to the tech stack so if they start using this, it’ll entrench NVIDIA even more.

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qwertox ◴[] No.42619479[source]
You could have said the same about gamers buying expensive hardware in the 00's. It's what made Nvidia big.
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Cumpiler69 ◴[] No.42620002[source]
There's a lot more gamers than people wanting to play with LLms at home.
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anonylizard ◴[] No.42620074[source]
There's a titanic market with people wanting some uncensored local LLM/image/video generation model. This market extremely overlaps with gamers today, but will grow exponentially every year.
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Cumpiler69 ◴[] No.42620079[source]
How big is that market you claim? Local LLM image generation already exists out off the box on latest Samsung flagship phones and it's mostly a Gimmick that gets old pretty quickly. Hardly comparable to gaming in terms of market size and profitablity.

Plus, YouTube and the Google images is already full of AI generated slop and people are already tired of it. "AI fatigue" amongst majority of general consumers is a documented thing. Gaming fatigues is not.

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TeMPOraL ◴[] No.42622670[source]
> Gaming fatigues is not.

It is. You may know it as the "I prefer to play board games (and feel smugly superior about it) because they're ${more social, require imagination, $whatever}" crowd.

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Cumpiler69 ◴[] No.42623228[source]
The market heavily disagrees with you.

"The global gaming market size was valued at approximately USD 221.24 billion in 2024. It is forecasted to reach USD 424.23 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of around 6.50% during the forecast period (2025-2033)"

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com2kid ◴[] No.42623573{3}[source]
Farmville style games underwent similar explosive estimates of growth, up until they collapsed.

Much of the growth in gaming of late has come from exploitive dark patterns, and those dark patterns eventually stop working because users become immune to them.

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mrguyorama ◴[] No.42625629{4}[source]
>Farmville style games underwent similar explosive estimates of growth, up until they collapsed.

They did not collapse, they moved to smartphones. The "free"-to-play gacha portion of the gaming market is so successful it is most of the market. "Live service" games are literally traditional game makers trying to grab a tiny slice of that market, because it's infinitely more profitable than making actual games.

>those dark patterns eventually stop working because users become immune to them.

Really? Slot machines have been around for generations and have not become any less effective. Gambling of all forms has relied on the exact same physiological response for millennia. None of this is going away without legislation.

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1. com2kid ◴[] No.42626766{5}[source]
> Slot machines have been around for generations and have not become any less effective.

Slot machines are not a growth market. The majority of people wised to them literal generations ago, although enough people remain susceptible to maintain a handful of city economies.

> They did not collapse, they moved to smartphones

Agreed, but the dark patterns being used are different. The previous dark patterns became ineffective. The level of sophistication of psychological trickery in modern f2p games is far beyond anything Farmville ever attempted.

The rise of live service games also does not bode well for infinite growth in the industry as there's only so many hours to go around each day for playing games and even the evilest of player manipulation techniques can only squeeze so much blood from a stone.

The industry is already seeing the failure of new live service games to launch, possibly analogous to what happened in the MMO market when there was a rush of releases after WoW. With the exception of addicts, most people can only spend so many hours a day playing games.