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Kelly Can't Fail

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JohnMakin ◴[] No.42467834[source]
Kelly criterion is one of my favorite game theory concepts that is used heavily in bankroll management of professional gamblers, particularly poker players. It is a good way to help someone understand how you can manage your finances and stakes in a way that allows you to climb steadily forward without risking too much or any ruin, but is frequently misapplied in that space. The problem is kelly deals with binary results, and often situations in which this is applied where the results are not binary (a criteria for applying this) you can see skewed results that look almost right but not quite so, depending on how you view the math
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1. kqr ◴[] No.42479441[source]
> The problem is kelly deals with binary results,

Incorrect. https://entropicthoughts.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criteri...

The Kelly criterion generalises just fine to continuous, simultaneous, complicated allocations.

All it takes is a list of actions which we are choosing from (and these can be compound actions with continuous outcomes) and the joint probability distribution of wealth outcomes after each action.