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Kelly Can't Fail

(win-vector.com)
389 points jmount | 1 comments | 19 Dec 24 23:07 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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pcthrowaway ◴[20 Dec 24 02:34 UTC] No.42467756[source]▶
Note that you need to be able to infinitely divide your stake for this to work out for you all the time.

For example, if the deck has 26 red cards on top, you'd end up dwindling your initial $1.00 stake to 0.000000134 before riding it back up to 9.08

replies(7): >>42467772 #>>42467915 #>>42468365 #>>42468411 #>>42470747 #>>42471103 #>>42480391 #
1. nyeah ◴[20 Dec 24 13:59 UTC] No.42471103[source]▶
It's a good point. I think it affects the realism of the model. When the stake is very low, finding a penny on the street gives an astronomical improvement in the end results. At the high end, it's possible the counterparty might run out of money.