←back to thread

Kelly Can't Fail

(win-vector.com)
389 points jmount | 2 comments | 19 Dec 24 23:07 UTC | HN request time: 0.405s | source
Show context
pcthrowaway ◴[20 Dec 24 02:34 UTC] No.42467756[source]▶
Note that you need to be able to infinitely divide your stake for this to work out for you all the time.

For example, if the deck has 26 red cards on top, you'd end up dwindling your initial $1.00 stake to 0.000000134 before riding it back up to 9.08

replies(7): >>42467772 #>>42467915 #>>42468365 #>>42468411 #>>42470747 #>>42471103 #>>42480391 #
1. tgma ◴[20 Dec 24 05:00 UTC] No.42468411[source]▶
Yup, the dual would be saying Martingale can't fail with infinite money.
replies(1): >>42473671 #
2. aidenn0 ◴[20 Dec 24 18:46 UTC] No.42473671[source]▶
It's not because there is a finite amount of money at which this can't fail, which is never the case for martingale. Martingale is actually likely to bankrupt you against a casino that is much more well staked than you even if you have a small advantage.