←back to thread

Why everyone missed solar's exponential growth

(www.exponentialview.co)
39 points xbmcuser | 1 comments | 21 Nov 24 01:35 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source
Show context
roenxi ◴[21 Nov 24 04:45 UTC] No.42201206[source]▶
> So wrong, in fact, that when I recently offered a $1,000 bet on solar’s explosive growth, not a single expert would take me up on it.

Doesn't that mean the forecasters agreed with this gentleman? He bet $1,000 that he is right and nobody wanted to bet against that.

I'll also say that forecasters, by the nature of their role, basically just project status quo forward for whatever their time horizon is. They generally don't have a good vantage point to spot fundamental market shifts. You have to be brave to bet on an exponential trend holding since when they end they end suddenly.

replies(1): >>42201509 #
1. BLKNSLVR ◴[21 Nov 24 05:51 UTC] No.42201509[source]▶
I'm going to say that that's accurate when you replace 'forecasters' with 'economists'. It's why things don't change as quickly as they could, because:

- The economic data suggests..

- Economists agree that...

If it relies on history to guess the future, you're mostly going to get history as the result. Somewhat analgous to science progressing on funeral at a time.