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499 points perihelions | 30 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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mitjam ◴[] No.42193017[source]
It was crossing right on time for the interruptions, a Russian officer was on board, it slowed down while crossing, no other ships were slowing down in that area during that time (rulingnout headwinds) - it cannot get much clearer. China is now participating in hybrid warfare against Europe (unless they present stronger evidence against this assumption)
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1. netsharc ◴[] No.42193273[source]
> China is now participating in hybrid warfare against Europe

Geez, I'm glad you're not war minister. It's a Chinese registered ship with a Russian captain.

If a terrorist crashes a truck with Portuguese plates into the US embassy in Berlin, would that mean Portugal's declared war against the USA?

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2. drewcoo ◴[] No.42193344[source]
> war minister

Due to an earlier generation's newspeak, that's "defense," not "war."

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3. Larrikin ◴[] No.42193457[source]
[flagged]
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4. Arnt ◴[] No.42194195[source]
[flagged]
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5. netsharc ◴[] No.42194274[source]
Yes, this is what I'm saying, but with less words.

But look around (even in these comments) and look at how many people are thinking "Chinese act of war!!!11!!"

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6. Arnt ◴[] No.42194352{3}[source]
Yes… A lot of them really need have it spelt out, twice, in large clear type.
7. xbar ◴[] No.42194398[source]
Well said.
8. Octoth0rpe ◴[] No.42194409[source]
They're not asking for Russia to get the benefit of the doubt, they're asking (reasonably IMO) for China.
9. Arnt ◴[] No.42194445[source]
Are you sure about that?

I happened to notice that at least in some cases, the change of terminology happened roughly when it became clear that offensive war was a losing proposition in terms of money and resources. I suspect that as invading the neighbours became financially irrational, the cool heads that tend to survive in management shifted their stand from mixed offense/defense to just defense.

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10. jstummbillig ◴[] No.42194782{3}[source]
> Yes, this is what I'm saying, but with less words.

That's really not all you are saying, and the difference is important. Maybe not to you, though.

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11. aldous ◴[] No.42194820[source]
Yes, good points. It's not a wild stretch of the imagination that Mr P and gang are actively trying to drag China into the Ukraine conflict and I'd imagine Beijing is pretty pissed off today about being (ostensibly) implicated in this sabotage. So the usual underhand scheming from the Kremlin imho, don't fall for it. China and Russia's relationship is very complicated of course and there's many a convincingly analysis out there that predicts conflict between them in the near future (an example flashpoint being Siberia).
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12. netsharc ◴[] No.42194882{4}[source]
Then, elaborate please, Jochen, what's the important difference?
13. mschuster91 ◴[] No.42195022[source]
> If a terrorist crashes a truck with Portuguese plates into the US embassy in Berlin, would that mean Portugal's declared war against the USA?

At the very least, the cooperation of Portugal's authorities would be expected to determine how the truck ended up being used for the attack, and if anyone knew about how the vehicle was to be used.

I expect the same amount of cooperation from China as the flag state.

14. holowoodman ◴[] No.42195053[source]
Well, yes, Flag of Convenience is a thing.

But there is a "but", which is that in the articles of war, the flag of a ship does have quite a few implications. E.g. when two nations are at war, stopping ships flagged as belonging to the opposition gives certain rights of stopping and searching them, blockading their passage, seizing the vessels and cargo, etc.

And the relevant characteristic in that case is the flag, not the captain's nationality: > Art. 51. Enemy character. The enemy or neutral character of a vessel is determined by the flag which it is entitled to fly.

http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/instree/1913a.htm

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15. PhasmaFelis ◴[] No.42195168{4}[source]
As far as I can tell, you're both saying the same thing: that registering a ship in China does not mean China is responsible for that ship's actions. If you've got a different point to make, please make it clear.
16. Arnt ◴[] No.42195382{3}[source]
If you want to be formal about it, none of the countries with Baltic coastlines are formally at war.
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17. jajko ◴[] No.42195435[source]
A well-earned result of decades of their hard work, although this is about china-registered vessel
18. holowoodman ◴[] No.42195460{4}[source]
Yes, but there is the huge other "but" that in modern use, a formal declaration of war is no longer necessary, committing acts of war is sufficient for a state of war to exist. (However, committing acts of war without a preceding declaration is of course a war crime.)

Of course this isn't really automatic and triggered by the smallest thing, both sides kind of have to "agree" to be at war, e.g. by a counter-attack, a declaration following the attack or something like that. And nobody really wants to take that bait, due to the huge consequences involved.

Yet, it is China playing with fire here, we all can be happy that none of the affected nations took them up on their "offer" of war.

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19. scrps ◴[] No.42195480[source]
So the Russians who are at this point highly dependant on Daddy Xi to keep their economy and military afloat are gonna false flag the West to suck China into a quagmire of a war a few months before the most unpredictable and venomously anti-china president (who has thin skin, a hair trigger, and no qualms about conducting airstrikes on high-ranking Iranian generals unilaterally on a whim) in modern US history is about to take office at the head of a country with the largest functioning stockpile of nuclear weapons and a massive military? You think Chinese intelligence is asleep at the wheel and wouldn't notice given the stakes and absurd levels of geopolitical risk the entire planet is at?

China may back Russia to try to shift perception of the west's military might/will or to drain resources or just to buy Russia by making them dependant to get those juicy Russian natural resources but they aren't going to start world war iii to help Putin with his fetishistic "yet another European dictator" fantasy.

The Chinese know how to play the game same as the Russians and the US. All these little games are just calibrated psyops, why destroy, very publicly, comms lines when tapping it would be far more beneficial to a war effort and much quieter? Maybe to make the West look weak and unable to defend their borders which affects consequences domestically like say channeling political support to isolationist politicians who want to retreat from supporting Ukraine? Cause those politicians didn't make gains in the last European elections or nothing.

20. escape_goat ◴[] No.42195728{5}[source]
Just to clarify again, this is a dry bulk / Panamax vessel. It is part of the shipping industry. At scale, it is analogous to a railroad car. In 2015 it was operating as the Avra under the flag of Greece. The foreknowledge of the Chinese government that a Russian officer would conduct hybrid operations from the vessel cannot be inferred from the circumstance. It is like thinking that someone with an American passport is an American spy.
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21. bungle ◴[] No.42195865[source]
It was the second Chinese registered ship with Russian crew within a short period of time. A year ago this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear cut the gas pipe and another communications line.

I am sure if the cowardly Russians ever did this to USA, it would cause a much bigger drama and retaliation wave, and China would take the hit as well.

22. holowoodman ◴[] No.42195912{6}[source]
It is quite the opposite from what you are arguing. China is responsible for the conduct of the vessels they allowed to fly their flag.

They can later claim that the crew and captain acted on their own will, without orders from the Chinese leadership. They can duly punish the captain and crew or disavow the vessel and declare them renegade, disallow them to fly their flag. But without such a declaration, a nation such as China is responsible for the conduct of their fleets, be they civilian or military. And any vessel they allow to fly their flag is part of their (in this case civilian) fleet.

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23. WitCanStain ◴[] No.42196500{7}[source]
Is the US responsible for any crime committed by members of ships that fly the star-spangled banner?
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24. mitjam ◴[] No.42196931[source]
True but China can support or not support investigations and prosecution. After all they are the ones who can exercise their sovereign rights on ships sailing under their flag. I‘m really curious and open minded how this plays out but sadly would be surprised if China would support the EU in this case.
25. mitjam ◴[] No.42197001{3}[source]
Yes Mr Pistorius is „Verteidigungsminister“ as in defence, and it‘s called that way since 1955. Not that hard to find out.
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26. ceejayoz ◴[] No.42197692{8}[source]
To some extent, yes. US law applies on US-flagged ships.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience

> A ship's flag state exercises regulatory control over the vessel and is required to inspect it regularly, certify the ship's equipment and crew, and issue safety and pollution prevention documents.

Because US law is strong in this regard, the US military is by far the largest contributor to the count. Less than 200 civilian vessels are flagged in the US; https://www.statista.com/statistics/652126/us-flag-oceangoin....

27. Arnt ◴[] No.42197758{4}[source]
Germany's a good example. In 1914 the ministry was called Kriegsministerium, and an invasion wasn't seen as a necessarily bad idea. I think it already was, but at the time, you could argue in Berlin that a country that started a war could benefit from that war, if executed well. That kind of argument wouldn't make people doubt your judgment yet.

A few years later it was clear that offense was necessarily a resource loss. Someone who wanted to build a career as a civil servant might then see a defense ministry as a viable option, but not any sort of offensive war. Offense was clearly not viable, and therefore not a good basis for budget allocations, and therefore the good career move for the civil servants was to focus the ministries entirely on defense.

28. ◴[] No.42199415{3}[source]
29. escape_goat ◴[] No.42199922{7}[source]
Well sure we can both make unsourced assertions all day but as far as I can see the flag state is responsible for illegal conduct of commercial vessels only insofar it has failed to meet its obligations for regulatory and legal oversight.
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30. holowoodman ◴[] No.42202276{8}[source]
Well, yes. But I'd claim that having a vessel intentionally damage foreign property and then ignoring the issue and not exercising legal oversight by at least investigating what happened is such a failure in obligations.