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Yi Peng 3 crossed both cables C-Lion 1 and BSC at times matching when they broke

(bsky.app)
499 points perihelions | 20 comments | 20 Nov 24 06:56 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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nabla9 ◴[20 Nov 24 08:15 UTC] No.42191758[source]▶
October 2023 there was similar incident where Chinese cargo ship cut Balticonnector cable and EE-S1 cable. Chip named 'Newnew Polar Bear' under Chinese flag and Chinese company Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping Co, Ltd. (aka Torgmoll) with CEO named Yelena V. Maksimova, drags anchor in the seabed cutting cables. Chinese investigation claims storm was the reason, but there was no storm, just normal windy autumn weather. The ship just lowered one anchor and dragged it with engines running long time across the seabed until the anchor broke.

These things happen sometimes, ship anchors sometimes damage cables, but not this often and without serious problems in the ship. Russians are attempting plausible deniability.

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spongebobstoes ◴[20 Nov 24 08:20 UTC] No.42191786[source]▶
What are some concrete reasons why someone would want to damage these cables? Who benefits?
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threeseed ◴[20 Nov 24 08:44 UTC] No.42191926[source]▶
When Trump becomes President next year he is expected to demand that Ukraine settle the war with Russia or risk losing US aid and military support. It is why Russia is throwing everything at re-taking Kursk and US is now allowing long range strikes.

If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. If the EU decides to support Ukraine then because of the devastating sanctions there is a strong chance Russia loses.

So it's in Russia's interest to make life as difficult as possible for Europe over the coming months in order to convince them that ending the war is in their best interest.

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1. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 11:40 UTC] No.42192941[source]▶
> If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands.

As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves and Ukraine surrendering. Not only would it signal to Russia that they can take European land without consequences, but public opinion is very much against any sort of cessation of defenses. In my ~30 years I've never seen as strong NATO support from the common man in countries like Sweden and Spain as there is today.

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2. bananapub ◴[20 Nov 24 11:48 UTC] No.42192994[source]▶
> As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves

I agree, but it's not about accepting or saying it's a good idea, it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves.

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3. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 11:59 UTC] No.42193080[source]▶
I don't know if EU would be able to match the current support the US gives to Ukraine (maybe it already does? Or maybe it exceeds? I don't know either way) but what I'm sure off is that Europe won't stop trying even if it wouldn't be enough.
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4. sabbaticaldev ◴[20 Nov 24 12:13 UTC] No.42193190{3}[source]▶
how sure are you? I think the economic struggles + losing US support would make every incumbent leader lose their jobs until UE is full of Trump supporters
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5. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 12:23 UTC] No.42193290{4}[source]▶
Fairly confident, at least for the countries I frequent and have friends in. As an example, public opinion of NATO in Sweden was really negative up until ~2013 (Crimea occupation) where it kind of was equally positive/negative and then fast forward to today where it's at 64% positive. https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-betwe...

Being a Swede myself, and knowing how apathetic Swedish people are about basically anything, something having that large of support is pretty uncommon and signal a strong will to make NATO and EU defenses stronger, if anything.

Even people I know who been historically anti-"anything military" in the country have quickly turned into "We need to defend our Nordic brothers and sisters against the Russians" which kind of took me by surprise.

> UE is full of Trump supporters

That won't ever happen. Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans.

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6. adriand ◴[20 Nov 24 12:31 UTC] No.42193351{3}[source]▶
If you add up all the aid from the US and compare it to aid from the EU plus European nations, I think the share of contributions is roughly equal. But if that’s right (and I did the math in my head while scrolling a huge spreadsheet on my phone), then the loss of support from the US is significant. The US ability to produce armaments is also unparalleled in the West, so a loss of that supply is also a huge issue. Then you have the loss of the US as a military backer which may free Putin to be more aggressive - dirty bombs, tactical nukes, blowing up a nuclear reactor, assassinating Ukrainian leadership, who knows what. It’s a huge problem for Ukraine if they lose the US. But will they? It’s hard to know for certain.
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7. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 12:33 UTC] No.42193362{4}[source]▶
Thanks a lot for doing that, even thought kind of ad-hoc :) Some data for guesses is better than none!

I'm guessing that if US pulls their support, EU will try to add as much to cover up for it as humanly possible, as most compatriots see Ukraine as the frontline of something that can grow much, much bigger which because of remembering history, we'd obviously like to avoid.

8. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 14:51 UTC] No.42194379[source]▶
I know there are some countries where support is less than in other places (Germany being one, as you highlighted).

I still stand by my original statement that unilateral decision in EU of stop supporting Ukraine and letting Russia keep the occupied territories.

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9. rksbank ◴[20 Nov 24 15:20 UTC] No.42194634{3}[source]▶
Support in Germany is the same as support in Ukraine itself (according to the above Gallup poll at least).

Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-...

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10. bluGill ◴[20 Nov 24 15:20 UTC] No.42194635{4}[source]▶
Europe is great at producing armaments as well - but there are a lot of useful armaments that are only produced in the US. If you had to choose either EU or US support, the US is the better option as they can give you things that the EU cannot even though the EU has more people than the US and a good economy.

The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday.

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11. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 15:27 UTC] No.42194714{4}[source]▶
> Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany:

Yes, it seems to differ in at least one place by a lot: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42193290

I'm sure that's true for other places too.

12. honzabe ◴[20 Nov 24 15:30 UTC] No.42194739[source]▶
> Public opinion is against further weapons shipments to Ukraine

The linked article is about the opinion of Germans about shipments of German weapons. When you don't specify that in the context of this thread, which is about Europe, not Germany, people might mistakenly interpret that as data about Europe.

13. diggan ◴[20 Nov 24 15:42 UTC] No.42194891{5}[source]▶
> The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday.

Are you talking about SAM capabilities or something else? Because there are plenty of SAMs produced by European countries; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surface-to-air_missile...

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14. bluGill ◴[20 Nov 24 17:53 UTC] No.42196483{6}[source]▶
The full setup for missile defense. This includes radar, computers and so on.
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15. sekai ◴[20 Nov 24 19:08 UTC] No.42197107[source]▶
Okay, now let's see polls for Poland, Finland, or UK.
16. lpcvoid ◴[20 Nov 24 19:25 UTC] No.42197245[source]▶
Unfortunately, many of my German countrymen are either stupid or complacent for not wanting more weapon deliveries, so a striving democracy can defend itself.
17. apelapan ◴[20 Nov 24 19:34 UTC] No.42197316{7}[source]▶
The European system often contain some American components. Perhaps the French a bit less so.

This has turned out to be a major problem, as the US has used their re-export restrictions on components to block very significant parts of planned European military aid to Ukraine.

I speculate that there will be (already is) some extremely heavy investments in military tech R&D to remove/reduce dependence on American components going forward. As a continent, we can't have our hands tied like this in future conflicts.

18. onlyrealcuzzo ◴[20 Nov 24 21:10 UTC] No.42198142[source]▶
> it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves.

Your economy is nearly 10 times the size of Russia.

If Russia can continue, then you can almost 10 times more easily.

It's not a "can" issue. It's a "are you willing to do more than absolute minimum?" issue.

19. henrikschroder ◴[20 Nov 24 23:33 UTC] No.42199272{5}[source]▶
To be fair, we do have a couple of hundred years of history where Russia was always the big bad. Pretty much the only large-scale scenario the Swedish military trains and prepares for is a Russian invasion. The enemy always comes from the east.
20. aguaviva ◴[20 Nov 24 23:52 UTC] No.42199440{5}[source]▶
Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans.

Any examples you can point to?