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392 points seanhunter | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.876s | source
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fbartos ◴[] No.42187911[source]
Hi, I'm the first author of the manuscript, so I thought I could answer some of the questions and clarify some issues (all details are in the manuscript, but who has the time to read it ;)

Low RPM tosses: Most of the recordings are on crapy webcams with ~ 30FPS. The coin spin usually much faster than the sensor can record which results in often non-spinning-looking flips. Why did we take the videos in the first place? To check that everyone collected the data and to audit the results.

Building a flipping matching: The study is concerned with human coin flips. Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery's (DHM, 2007) paper theorize that the imperfection of human flips causes the same-side bias. Building a machine completely defeats the purpose of the experiment.

Many authors and wasted public funding: We did the experiment in our free time and we had no funding for the study = no money was wasted. Also, I don't understand why are so many people angry that students who contributed their free time and spent the whole day flipping coins with us were rewarded with co-authorship. The experiment would be impossible to do without them.

Improper tosses: Not everyone flips coin perfectly and some people are much worse at flipping than others. We instructed everyone to flip the coin as if they were to settle a bet and that the coin has to flip at least once (at least one flip would create bias for the opposite side). We find that for most people, the bias decreased over time which suggests that people might get better at flipping by practice = decrease the bias and it also discredits the theory that they learned how to be biased on purpose. From my own experience - I flipped coins more than 20,000 times and I have no clue how to bias it. Also, we did a couple of sensitivity analyses excluding outliers - the effect decreased a bit but we still found plentiful evidence for DHM.

If you doubt my stats background, you are more than welcome to re-analyze the data on your own. They are available on OSF: https://osf.io/mhvp7/ (including cleaning scripts etc).

Frantisek Bartos

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1. emmelaich ◴[] No.42188219[source]
The first thing I looked for was how high was the flip and did it land on a hard or soft surface. Neither seemed to be mentioned in the paper.

From the one video I looked at, the flip seems to be a few feet high at most, and land back in the hand.

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2. fbartos ◴[] No.42188314[source]
> In each sequence, people randomly (or according to an algorithm) selected a starting position (heads-up or tails-up) of the first coin flip, flipped the coin, caught it in their hand, recorded the landing position of the coin (heads-up or tails-up), and proceeded with flipping the coin starting from the same side it landed in the previous trial (we decided for this “autocorrelated” procedure as it simplified recording of the outcomes). (p.3)

Wrt to the height, that naturaly varied among people and flips and we did not measure it.

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3. ◴[] No.42189836{3}[source]