Nordic neighbours release new advice on surviving war

I just watched Patlabor 2 last night, about a civil war in post-Cold War Japan. The main theme is the following: The thing about one-in-a-million events is that they are eventually going to happen once the other 999,999 occur. Thus a government which does not plan for one-in-a-million scenarios is truly derelict and incapable of survival.

> The thing about one-in-a-million events is that they are eventually going to happen once the other 999,999 occur.

Nitpick: I get your point, but phrasing it like this is basically the gambler's fallacy. That's not how probability works.

You could ask though if, given the changed environment, the one-in-a-million event still has the odds of one-in-a-million. Or if one-in-a-million is really such a rare thing if you make a billion draws...

Better formulation:

a one-in-a-million event that is tried a million times has a ~63% chance of happening.

yes, that doesn't suffer from gambler's fallacy, but actually surprises people and makes them forget about the issue you're talking about and focus on the probabilities that they don't understand and have no tools to understand... and that's when the 1 in a million event takes place, while they are distracted