Pulling completely unsubstantiated numbers out of your ass is not an argument. No, calling it "an estimate" does not actually make a number you've pulled out of your ass an actual estimate. No, composing a bunch of """estimates""" doesn't make an argument, and it doesn't matter what kind of "error ranges" you give your made up numbers, the error range of the composed value is basically infinite.
>The way it works is simple and common sense
Claiming "common sense" in any argument is red flag number 1 that you don't actually have a self supporting argument. Common sense doesn't actually exist, and anyone leaning on it is just trying to compel you through embarrassment to support their cause without argument. There's a reason proving 1+1=2 takes a hundred pages.
Randomly inserting numbers that "seem" right so that you can pretend to be a rigorous field is cargo cultism and pseudoscience. Numbers without data and justification is not rigor.
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