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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

(www.cnn.com)
577 points mooreds | 12 comments | 18 Nov 24 14:31 UTC | HN request time: 1.514s | source | bottom
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rdtsc ◴[18 Nov 24 20:42 UTC] No.42176747[source]▶
> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.”

If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see how NATO/EU will feel about their "red lines", and how well does that article 5 really work in practice. Is it worth more than the paper it's printed on? Let's find out!

People have been laughing at the West crossing multiple Russian "red lines" and the Russians not doing anything. So the Russians can follow a similar route: a cable torn here, a warehouse blows up there, maybe a bank website is hacked, water supply or power station company blows up "randomly". Is anyone going to launch nuclear bombs because of that? That's absurd, of course not, yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process.

Ideally, these countries should ramp up similar acts of sabotage on the Russian territory if they confirmed that's exactly who it is. A dam fails in Siberia, maybe the payment system goes down for a week, a submarine catches on fire while in port for repairs. Honestly I don't think they have the guts to do that.

Some regimes only speak the language of power. They have to be believably threatened; calling them on phone to chat and beg for them to behave, is just showing more weakness. Scholz just called Putin. Anyone remember Macron talking with Putin for tens of hours at the start of the war? A lot of good that did. When they see a credible fist in front of their nose, that's the only way they'll stop.

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JumpCrisscross ◴[18 Nov 24 21:06 UTC] No.42177038[source]▶
> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process

Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2].

Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

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1. rdtsc ◴[18 Nov 24 21:31 UTC] No.42177298[source]▶
> Really?

That's exactly how the Russians perceive the EU. They are perceived as weak. There is no way they would have started the invasion if they were afraid of them. They are engaging in asymmetrical warfare because they are convinced they can demonstrate that to the world as well "look what we are doing there and well we get is phone calls form Sholz" [1]

> Scholz condemned the war of aggression against Ukraine

> The German leader called on Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine ...

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-calls-putin-for-first-...

That might look like a "power move" by Germany but it looks absolutely weak in the eyes of Putin.

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2. JumpCrisscross ◴[18 Nov 24 21:41 UTC] No.42177412[source]▶
> That's exactly how the Russians perceive the EU. They are perceived as weak

Europe has been weak. The difference is Russia is weak while trying its hardest. Europe is weak because it can't bother to try.

> That might look like a "power move" by Germany but it looks absolutely weak in the eyes of Putin

Nobody considers condemnations power moves. Also, Putin's track record in reading who's too weak to do what doesn't look too hot right now.

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3. rdtsc ◴[18 Nov 24 22:07 UTC] No.42177650[source]▶
> That might look like a "power move" by Germany but it looks absolutely weak in the eyes of Putin

Calling and talking with Putin as acting as some kind of "power broker" or "decider" (Bush junior's classic). I think that's the context there. That's after years of hand wringing, should we help, or shouldn't help, maybe help, but not too much and so on.

> Europe has been weak. The difference is Russia is weak while trying its hardest. Europe is weak because it can't bother to try

I agree, and I don't know if now it finally woke up or it hasn't yet. It's not over till it's over, as they say.

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4. Demiurge ◴[19 Nov 24 05:21 UTC] No.42180295[source]▶
How is it trying its hardest when it hasn’t declared a full scale mobilization, hasn’t closed its borders, or switched to war time economy?
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5. XorNot ◴[19 Nov 24 05:43 UTC] No.42180376{3}[source]▶
Russia is absolutely in a full war time economy at the moment. There's nothing left to squeeze out of it and they're headed for a meltdown in 2025/2026.
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6. malaya_zemlya ◴[19 Nov 24 06:56 UTC] No.42180685{3}[source]▶
40% of Russian budget is allocated to defense, that's roughly the same level as US during Vietnam war.
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7. lucianbr ◴[19 Nov 24 07:04 UTC] No.42180730{4}[source]▶
> Russia is absolutely in a full war time economy at the moment.

So it would seem.

> There's nothing left to squeeze out of it and they're headed for a meltdown in 2025/2026.

Promises, promises. By the time 2026 rolls around, nobody will remember this comment to tell you how wrong you were.

I mean, you could be right. Who knows. The point is the future is uncertain, and using predictions as proof or arguments is stupid. Nobody knows what's going to happen 2 years out.

Did you know ahead of time they would get NK soldiers, NK artillery ammo, Iranian drones? What if Putin finds some clever ways of compensating for the losses? He's actively trying to improve his situation, not just sitting on his ass watching, as these predictions imply.

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8. XorNot ◴[19 Nov 24 07:59 UTC] No.42180966{5}[source]▶
And what if an asteroid destroys all the Russian forces..then what?

Current Russian interest rates are 21% on cash, 15% on 10 year bonds[1] and the government is increasing spending on the war.[2]

The wheels aren't going to come off immediately, but they've been reaching the peak of their ability.

Or to put it another way: you're not clever for going "nah uh" and there's no such thing as magic. For the next 3 years Russia's economy is being tossed at the war entirely, and every dollar which is is coming at the expense of everything else.

And this is all based on the heavily massaged Kremlin figures: they're not easy to lie about, but they're certainly also only ever going to be reported to try and shape a message of the type you're now parroting: you can't win so don't even try, Kremlin-strong, authoritarianism is just plain tougher then you decadent westerners.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-bond-yield

[2] https://cepa.org/article/russia-budgets-for-its-forever-war/

9. cmrdporcupine ◴[19 Nov 24 14:57 UTC] No.42184093[source]▶
That Russian ideology is stuck in 19th century / WWI-era imperial mentality is their own problem. How they "perceive" Europe is their own concern.

Europe mostly learned its lessons after WWII and is more interested in commerce and trade, not in battling over colonial possessions and ethnic partitioning. The games that the US (in Iraq, Syria etc.) and the Russians are playing have had nothing but negative effects on the world. US poked the hornets nest in Iraq/Syria and now Europe has had a refugee crisis for 10+ years. Russia butchering Ukraine the same.

10. ◴[19 Nov 24 17:01 UTC] No.42185616{4}[source]▶
11. coffeebeqn ◴[19 Nov 24 23:03 UTC] No.42189005[source]▶
Scholz is a relic from a era that has ended. The new chancellor early next year will likely be much more anti-Russia. Another strategic win?
12. mrguyorama ◴[20 Nov 24 17:38 UTC] No.42196329{3}[source]▶
Poland at least seems awake. They are gobbling up Korean tanks and artillery. Poland has seen this story play out and they are tired of being the butt of the joke.

If Europe won't protect Poland, Poland will defend itself.