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271 points nradov | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.281s | source
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incomingpain ◴[] No.42172690[source]
Admittedly I'm not familiar with bhutan. Besides basics, and buddhism connections. Lets take a look.

>Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay believes it is ironically the success of Gross National Happiness that has made young Bhutanese so sought after abroad.

They are 95th place for GDP.

125th place for HDI.

I wouldn't even consider working on 'happiness' with the numbers that bad.

Bhutan's balance of trade appears to be entirely negative. So the country is getting poorer.

Their GDP numbers are 5% growth every year? That seems impossible.

3% unemployment and 65% participation rate.

Lets call it a ~4-5% inflation average or worse.

6.8% interest rate, while never ever being below 6%? So they target what 5%? So its not that GDP growth at 5% is impossible. They are essentially saying they havent had gdp growth in decades, they are hiding a major depression?

In the last 10 years Bhutan has doubled their money supply, while population is leaving? LOL incoming government collapse.

government debt to gdp is ~130%. 100% is the magical threshold you're not allowed to cross. If you're the federal reserve and Tbills reputation might allow you to go above 100% like the USA in 2020... but Bhutan has no such ability. They likely cant cross ~40% if i were to estimate.

Major deficit spending across the last 25 years.

Sales tax of 50%

Income tax of 30%

>Bhutan was, and is today, largely a subsistence agricultural society. Many families still live in multigenerational farmhouses.

I'd be leaving as well. Nobody is seeking Bhutan people. The bhutan people are fleeing the inevitable.

Bhutan is about 20% debt/gdp from a venezuela level collapse. If by some magic they dont collapse there, they are about 40% from a greece like collapse.

Bhutan is already about 10% higher than the Sri Lankan collapse.

Fleee Bhutan while you can.

replies(5): >>42172749 #>>42172992 #>>42173028 #>>42173345 #>>42176346 #
1. alephnerd ◴[] No.42176346[source]
> Fleee Bhutan while you can

Leaving Bhutan for Australia and the US (often on a Refugee visa) is extremely popular in Bhutan nowadays [0]. If you live in the Bay Area, there is a large Bhutanese (as well as Nepali, Indian Tibetan, and Himachali) diaspora in the East Bay.

> Their GDP numbers are 5% growth every year? That seems impossible

They are a large energy exporter who exports much of their energy to Northeast India and Bangladesh.

That said, most infrastructure is owned and operated by Indian conglomerates like Tata Group or Indian SoEs.

> Bhutan is about 20% debt/gdp from a venezuela level collapse. If by some magic they dont collapse there, they are about 40% from a greece like collapse

The Indian government will prop up Bhutan no matter what. Several of India's forward deployment bases are located in the country, and it is critical for defending much of Northeast India from China.

If Bhutan gets even the slightest bit wobbly or shifts direction, India would probably "absorb" Bhutan the same way it did Sikkim in 1973.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bhutans-jobs-woes...