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Humans have caused 1.5 °C of long-term global warming according to new estimates

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399 points gmays | 1 comments | 17 Nov 24 18:49 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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abdullahkhalids ◴[17 Nov 24 19:21 UTC] No.42166327[source]▶
The last IPCC report estimates that to limit warming to 2C, humans can only emit at most 1150 GtCO2 (at 67% likelihood) [1].

There are 8.2 billion humans, so about 140tCO2/person left on average. If we assume that we get to net zero by 2050, that means the average person can emit about 5.4tCO2/person/year from today to 2050 (hitting 0tCO2/person/year in 2050). This is what emissions look like currently [2]

    Top 5 countries > 10m population
    Saudi Arabia  22.1t 
    United Arab Emirates 21.6t  
    Australia            14.5t 
    United States  14.3t
    Canada          14.0t
    Some others
    China           8.4t
    Europe 6.7t
    World average 4.7t
    Lower-middle-income countries of 1.6t
    Low-income countries 0.3t
Guess what's going to happen and who is going to suffer, despite not doing anything.

[1] Page 82 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-metrics

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animex ◴[17 Nov 24 20:41 UTC] No.42167033[source]▶
I wonder if there should be some scaling for extreme hot/cold countries. Most of our output here in Canada must be related to heating during our 6 months of cold climate.
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1. ant6n ◴[18 Nov 24 01:55 UTC] No.42169051[source]▶
There’s lots of inefficiencies all around in Canada. Poor insulation, too much suburbanization, not enough heat pumps. Transportation is also very inefficient (not enough public transit, too much suburbanization, not enough rail).

Tar sands are an issue, as is other oil.