Humans have caused 1.5 °C of long-term global warming according to new estimates

We are on the natural rise after a natural ice period. Just check long term temperature curves and stop looking short term, making it look like there has ever been the same average temperature on earth.

Simply wrong. Intuitive visualization: https://xkcd.com/1732/.

The temperature increase rate since the industrial revolution doesn't look very natural and doesn't seem like a coincidence.

It’s you who’s simply wrong.

You have to look before the ice period, that’s what OP refers to as long term.

https://scitechdaily.com/66-million-years-of-earths-climate-...

Natural rise

https://scitechdaily.com/66-million-years-of-earths-climate-...

The article you posted says:

"Now that we have succeeded in capturing the natural climate variability, we can see that the projected anthropogenic warming will be much greater than that.”

That does not seem to support your claim of "natural rise".

"A continuous record of the past 66 million years shows natural climate variability due to changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun is much smaller than projected future warming due to greenhouse gas emissions."

“Now that we have succeeded in capturing the natural climate variability, we can see that the projected anthropogenic warming will be much greater than that.”

"For the past 3 million years, Earth’s climate has been in an Icehouse state characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial periods. Modern humans evolved during this time, but greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities are now driving the planet toward the Warmhouse and Hothouse climate states not seen since the Eocene epoch, which ended about 34 million years ago."

Please read the article you're linking. Unless this is an awkwardly executed joke that I'm missing?

I'm not sure if this link is intended to contradict or reinforce the image from the previous link. The text of that link indicates that the research concluded that the Earth is currently much warmer than it ought to be given known natural processes.

And we all know how well adapted humans were for that period, right.

The research concluded in a hypothesis, not a factual proof.

That is to say what?

We've got satellites that can measure the inflow and outflow of radiation and see an imbalance.

We've got spectrographs that can look at that radiation to see which radiation is not balanced. We can see that what is happening is radiation coming in at wavelengths that the atmosphere doesn't block heats things which reradiate much of that energy as infrared which the atmosphere blocks.

Thanks to spectroscopy we know that it is CO₂ in the atmosphere that is largely responsible for this blocking.

We know that the increase in CO₂ levels over the last couple of hundred years is largely from fossil fuels rather than things like decaying vegetation, forest fires, animal respiration and flatulence, or volcanic gases because of isotope ratios in atmospheric CO₂.

CO₂ from living things or recently living things contains ¹⁴C. CO₂ from fossil fuels and volcanoes does not contain ¹⁴C. CO₂ from volcanoes contains a higher ratio of ¹³C to ¹²C than the ratio in atmospheric CO₂. CO₂ from fossil fuels contains a lower ratio of ¹³C to ¹²C than the ratio in atmospheric CO₂.

That allows scientists to look at the isotope ratios in the atmosphere and figure out how much of the CO₂ there came from fossil fuels and how much came from volcanoes. The result is that most of the increase is from fossil fuels.

As a sanity check that result also matches well with the amount of CO₂ that we'd expect to have been released based on the amount of known fossil fuel use.

So no, it is not a natural rise.

The +1.5°C cannot be attributed to the natural transition from an ice age. It is happening way too fast compared to the thousands of years the Milankovitch cycle operates on. Also, you're conveniently ignoring the fact that, if anything, the climate should be getting cooler, not hotter, as we are entering an ice age, not exiting one[1].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Present_...

That mammals were not in existence for the larger part of that very warm period. So the fact that life existed through it has little bearing on human civilization thriving through a similar one, as parent seemed to imply.

Let's, I am not afraid of the earth getting much warmer, I see it as mostly fear mongering. If it's really getting _that_ hot that we mammals can't survive, then let that be it. There's the notorious idea of some humans that we can control everything. Let's continue keeping the earth a clean, healthy space, let's stop producing so much waste, let's clean the water, I am all in. But to believe that we are heating up the earth, I'm glad that not all agree to that nonsense.

> But to believe that we are heating up the earth, I'm glad that not all agree to that nonsense.

We are not heating up the earth.

The sun is heating up the earth.

That's occurring as we are adding 11 billion tonnes per year of additional insulation to the atmosphere. That's like throwing more blankets on the bed, trapping more heat.

This is well documented. The gas properties are understood and can be demonstrated in science labs to children. The gas sources are well understood and derive from documented fossil fuel extraction and confirmed by both isotope records and now by orbiting satellites.

> I'm glad that not all agree to that nonsense.

Physics isn't for everone.

But heat equations work regardless.