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Humans have caused 1.5 °C of long-term global warming according to new estimates

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399 points gmays | 2 comments | 17 Nov 24 18:49 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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oezi ◴[17 Nov 24 19:06 UTC] No.42166179[source]▶
Looking into the numbers a couple if months ago I was surprised how little it costs to stop climate change.

On the order of 100-200 trillion USD. Which is roughly 100-200% of global yearly GDP. Or 2-5% of yearly GDP until 2050. This could well be provided by printing money at all the federal reserve banks.

This investment will likely bring in a positive return on investment because it reduces the negative climate impacts.

Without such investments the downstream costs in climate change adaptation will be very expensive

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yobbo ◴[17 Nov 24 19:28 UTC] No.42166377[source]▶
That is not how money and "work" functions. There is no way to "spend money" without spending energy and emitting CO2.

Assuming there is validity to the numbers (and no new source of energy), it means you need to reduce GDP by 2-5% yearly until 2050. But GDP and money is a "sliding" scale so it might mean something different by next year.

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1. oezi ◴[17 Nov 24 19:54 UTC] No.42166609[source]▶
The CO2 intensity of any activity can be vastly different. Net-Zero goals require that you transition to activities which produce less CO2. This can be negative CO2 emmissions (e.g. planting trees/felling them/storing the wood).

Replacing high CO2 intensity activities (burning coal) with lesser intensive tasks (e.g. burning gas or renewables) is the key.

Solar and other renewables counteract their Co2 expenditure after 1-2 years.

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2. yobbo ◴[17 Nov 24 20:38 UTC] No.42167008[source]▶
The amount of CO2 yet to be released depends on the amount of fossil fuel yet to be extracted. Current oil discoveries, wells, and coal mines will all be exploited as long as they are profitable.

It will be necessary to lower demand for fossil fuel enough that new prospecting becomes unprofitable. This will happen eventually due to the physics of oil drilling.

If you consider the amount of energy contributed to the world economy from fossil fuels, there is no clear path how to market alternatives in quantities that can make fossil fuels obsolete.

A more realistic scenario for around 2050 is that coal-power increases while oil for personal transportation is replaced by batteries due to high oil price.