YC is wrong about LLMs for chip design

I know nothing about chip design. But saying "Applying AI to field X won't work, because X is complex, and LLMs currently have subhuman performance at this" always sounds dubious.

VCs are not investing in the current LLM-based systems to improve X, they're investing in a future where LLM based systems will be 100x more performant.

Writing is complex, LLMs once had subhuman performance, and yet. Digital art. Music (see suno.AI) There is a pattern here.

I didn't get into this in the article, but one of the major challenges with achieving superhuman performance on Verilog is the lack of high-quality training data. Most professional-quality Verilog is closed source, so LLMs are generally much worse at writing Verilog than, say, Python. And even still, LLMs are pretty bad at Python!

I would imagine it is a reasonably straightforward thing to create a simulator that generates arbitrary chip designs and the corresponding verilog that can be used as training data. It would be much like how AlphaFold was trained. The chip designs don't need to be good, or even useful, they just need to be valid so the LLM can learn the underlying relationships.