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Effect of a giant meteorite impact on Paleoarchean environment and life

(www.chemistryworld.com)
133 points kristianp | 9 comments | 17 Nov 24 00:02 UTC | HN request time: 1.048s | source | bottom
1. hehehheh ◴[17 Nov 24 02:33 UTC] No.42161524[source]▶
When is the next one coming? Or what is the probability distributuon like?
replies(2): >>42161595 #>>42167362 #
2. patrickthebold ◴[17 Nov 24 02:48 UTC] No.42161595[source]▶
It's a poisson distribution.
replies(3): >>42161682 #>>42161716 #>>42162823 #
3. dataflow ◴[17 Nov 24 03:07 UTC] No.42161682[source]▶
Have the data actually been fit a Poisson distribution? Or is this is just a guess assuming constant rate and independence?
replies(1): >>42161792 #
4. nverno ◴[17 Nov 24 03:16 UTC] No.42161716[source]▶
I imagine it is more of an exponential decay mixed with poisson since strikes were far more common back in the day. Also, I'd guess an exponential decay in the expected size of impactors over time as they've been smashing themselves into pieces.
5. glial ◴[17 Nov 24 03:35 UTC] No.42161792{3}[source]▶
No natural phenomena ever exactly fits any probability distribution.
replies(2): >>42161805 #>>42161945 #
6. dataflow ◴[17 Nov 24 03:39 UTC] No.42161805{4}[source]▶
Right but I'm saying do we have data showing it's even close? (Genuinely asking, I have no idea.)
7. Q_is_4_Quantum ◴[17 Nov 24 04:23 UTC] No.42161945{4}[source]▶
except the emission spectra from atoms :)
8. Arech ◴[17 Nov 24 08:30 UTC] No.42162823[source]▶
Likely it isn't, because the Solar system today and 3Bln years ago are two very different systems.
9. rad_gruchalski ◴[17 Nov 24 21:17 UTC] No.42167362[source]▶
If things go sideways in 2029, the next one comes in 2036.