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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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249 points jaboutboul | 1 comments | 13 Nov 24 21:29 UTC | HN request time: 0.199s | source
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nomilk ◴[14 Nov 24 00:00 UTC] No.42131622[source]▶
As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability).

I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID and age requirements to use social media’ laws, but polymarket didn’t seem to have Australian politics odds, so I was left using oddschecker, which is inferior due to the annoying way it displays odds and it not storing historical data.

replies(3): >>42131721 #>>42131823 #>>42135397 #
1. creatonez ◴[14 Nov 24 12:02 UTC] No.42135397[source]▶
> They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability).

I've heard this point argued a few different ways, and I have to say: this is the most idiotic way of analyzing the world I can imagine. Don't listen to gamblers or people who think superforecasters are a real thing. Studying the world and reflecting on it thoughtfully will get you a lot further than these probabilities ever will.