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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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249 points jaboutboul | 4 comments | 13 Nov 24 21:29 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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nomilk ◴[14 Nov 24 00:00 UTC] No.42131622[source]▶
As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability).

I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID and age requirements to use social media’ laws, but polymarket didn’t seem to have Australian politics odds, so I was left using oddschecker, which is inferior due to the annoying way it displays odds and it not storing historical data.

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Terr_ ◴[14 Nov 24 00:14 UTC] No.42131721[source]▶
> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us

I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors.

Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P

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1. Tenoke ◴[14 Nov 24 01:41 UTC] No.42132274[source]▶
Err, checking the line on a horse race is a much more reliable way to tell who has what chance of winning than going to the stables as a random person, and most likely for a professional as well.
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2. seizethecheese ◴[14 Nov 24 01:49 UTC] No.42132324[source]▶
Excellent point. I’d go further and say it’s likely to be the single best information, much better than consuming media about horse racing.
3. Terr_ ◴[14 Nov 24 02:42 UTC] No.42132616[source]▶
My point is that the "learning about what is happening in the world around us" part falls flat when what comes next is "by finding which person to copy test answers from."

I mean, yeah, you technically learn something, but the limitations undercut the sales-pitch.

4. ◴[14 Nov 24 14:24 UTC] No.42136365[source]▶