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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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249 points jaboutboul | 2 comments | 13 Nov 24 21:29 UTC | HN request time: 0.41s | source
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beejiu ◴[13 Nov 24 22:09 UTC] No.42130650[source]▶
Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
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pembrook ◴[14 Nov 24 00:03 UTC] No.42131641[source]▶
I presume you also feel strongly that people should call health/life/car/homeowners insurance "gambling?"

Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market.

Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.

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beejiu ◴[14 Nov 24 00:12 UTC] No.42131704[source]▶
No, because even though insurance companies make profit, the primary motivation of insurance is risk pooling amongst the policyholders. This is not the case for those trading binary options or similar instruments (except for "hedging" - a legitimate use case of producers buying futures, for example).
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1. jsyang00 ◴[14 Nov 24 00:17 UTC] No.42131741[source]▶
you do not think there are legitimate hedges which can be made with events trading on prediction markets?

I think, indeed, a lot of people are effectively using the markets to gamble, but the same can be said for equities/futures.

I see no reason they shouldn't be allowed, since there are proxies that people can trade as well

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2. beejiu ◴[14 Nov 24 00:21 UTC] No.42131761[source]▶
I don't see anything in Polymarket's marketing material that suggests it be used for hedging.

They describe it as "profit from your knowledge by betting on future events across various topics" on their own website.

Betfair Exchange can be used to make predictions, too. They call it "implied probability" and it's always been a feature of their product.

My concern is the use of terminology to describe a gambling product as something else entirely.

Is it a prediction market than can be used to gamble?

Or is it a gambling exchange that can be used to make predictions?