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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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249 points jaboutboul | 8 comments | 13 Nov 24 21:29 UTC | HN request time: 0.403s | source | bottom
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beejiu ◴[13 Nov 24 22:09 UTC] No.42130650[source]▶
Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
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nickff ◴[13 Nov 24 22:17 UTC] No.42130759[source]▶
I am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'.

In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do you have with these markets/exchanges?

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1. beejiu ◴[13 Nov 24 22:24 UTC] No.42130825[source]▶
But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society.

(And I got the term "gambling exchange" from the UK where Betfair Exhange basically does what Polymarket do since 2000, without the Crypto glamour.)

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2. sitzkrieg ◴[13 Nov 24 22:26 UTC] No.42130850[source]▶
are futures markets gambling in your eyes because speculators can participate?
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3. snakeyjake ◴[13 Nov 24 22:39 UTC] No.42130990[source]▶
Yes.
4. beejiu ◴[13 Nov 24 22:48 UTC] No.42131073[source]▶
I can only speak from a UK perspective, but many financial instruments can be used in a gambling sense by retail "investors". In 2019, our regulator banned binary options, saying this:

"Binary options are gambling products dressed up as financial instruments. By confirming our ban today we are ensuring that investors don’t lose money from an inherently flawed product."

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/fca-confirms-permanen....

Sound familiar?

They also highly regulate CFDs and other financial instruments that are marketed to retail.

5. lbwtaylor ◴[13 Nov 24 23:05 UTC] No.42131213[source]▶
Futures markets serve an important role outside of speculation, i.e. producers managing their future price risk. Betting markets do not.
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6. memkit ◴[14 Nov 24 00:27 UTC] No.42131794{3}[source]▶
Everything in finance is isomorphic to some combination of borrow-lend agreements. Betting markets and futures markets are functionally one in the same. The only difference is the oracles and the series of bets required to construct your position.
7. balfirevic ◴[14 Nov 24 03:09 UTC] No.42132757[source]▶
> But it is not derogatory or euphemistic, it is descriptive. Polymarket is gambling by any definition. Gambling is known and proven to have great harms and risks to society.

Congrats on using the worst argument in the world: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncen...

8. hnburnsy ◴[14 Nov 24 06:27 UTC] No.42133613{3}[source]▶
Agreed but can entities also use the prediction markets to hedge against events that affect them directly or indirectly?