Nearly 40% of software engineers will only work remotely (2023)

I see this power struggle in job applications. The companies who really want to hire talent will include a remote option. Those with a more constrained vision will insist on hybrid or even full RTO. As an applicant the first thing I do is to filter out the latter.

you're not going to convince companies by condescending to them.

There are local politics involved where a company might have some kind of tax break or favorable leasing to offices. There are also municipalities concerned that having less workers in downtown areas would reduce economic activity with the shops and resturants in those areas.

I have also heard that productivity for remote government jobs is not as high.

But it's the truth, and companies that don't adapt will have to settle for the most desperate.

tax breaks for what though?

Not having to pay taxes for the land the building is great and all but still more expensive than just not having that building. Possibly even more expensive than a smaller building.

some smart people find office collaboration more dynamic and effective

For example, when Amazon looked to build HQ2, they were entertaining packages from municipalities, many of whom gave tax breaks for building HQ2 there.

TSMC and Intel also shopped around the country for new fabs, a combination of geological stability, water resources, support by municipal and state governments. Offering tax incentives were a part of that package, with the expectation of increasing job opportunities.

The tax breaks are not for the land, but for operating there. These often involve contracts with milestones.

Some bigger companies actually own very extensive office properties as part of their asset portfolios.

Commercial real estate has been teetering on trigging the next Black Swan event for the past couple years. No one wants to be holding title to buildings that are vacant and not generating rent.

Neither are the companies. It's a two-sided market.

Some smart people will have to settle for the most desperate coworkers.

The corporate tax burden is not my fault and I'm not going to pay the company's tax bill for them, they can get reckt.

All the BS that we saw where local govs were giving multimillion free deals if Amazon would locate there was a travesty, because of where that money comes from.

Welp, Business 101 would call that the Sunk Cost fallacy, throwing good money after bad.

Texas for example, threw tons of tax breaks to companies to get people to move to the state. One of the reasons Apple has a Austin campus, for example.

The lack of payroll tax (and income tax), is in theory made up for by the increased number of people and businesses in the state. This leads to more people buying houses and cars (property tax), or buying things in general (sales tax). And more bodies in turn create more demand for goods and services, driving the economy more.

Now, when the bodies are leaving, the state and municipality are taking a hit -- their big tax cuts aren't being hedged by personal spending because all of the persons left.

That also crushes other demand: no one is using gyms near their office, or getting gas to/from work, or grabbing coffee and lunch at places nearby. Fewer sales there, so even less tax, and eventually less people working there and potentially going out of business.

So consequently a lot of cities and states straight up said: get them back locally or we cut your tax breaks, and executives shrugged their shoulders and said "so be it".

1) it's not a black swan if we see it coming, or could see it coming, and predict what it will do

and 2) the massive rise in residential housing prices correlates to that risk, as commercial holders want to get out ASAP or at least hedge their risks by buying and renting.

And some smart people find working remotely more fulfilling and focused.

It's a matter of preference, over time the companies who do RTO will attract talent that prefers that, remote companies will attract other ones. There are smart people in both cohorts to be alienated if forced to do the other option so I don't get the argument. It's self-selecting if the options exist, the pandemic opened Pandora's Box.

> That also crushes other demand: no one is using gyms near their office, or getting gas to/from work, or grabbing coffee and lunch at places nearby. Fewer sales there, so even less tax, and eventually less people working there and potentially going out of business.

Yeah but at the some time downtown became more alive, the center has shifted so to say or became more fuzzy.