Also model the future: elections, social trends, stock prices, a movie plot, anything, everything. If your prediction fails, say how did I get that wrong; what didn't I consider that would have made my prediction more accurate?
Or, possibly you have a physical condition like I had; fixing sleep apnea raised my lichess elo by like 200 points.
https://atriumhealth.org/medical-services/prevention-wellnes...