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The IPv6 Transition

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215 points todsacerdoti | 1 comments | 20 Oct 24 05:54 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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commandersaki ◴[20 Oct 24 06:57 UTC] No.41893472[source]▶
> This is the same as looking at a linear trend line placed over the data series used in Figure 1, looking for the date when this trend line reaches 100%. Using a least-squares best fit for this data set from January 2020 to the present day, and using a linear trend line, we can come up with Figure 2.

> This exercise predicts that we’ll see completion of this transition in late 2045, or some 20 years into the future.

Anyone willing to place a bet on this?

> While the design of IPv6 consumed a lot of attention at the time, the concept of transition of the network from IPv4 to IPv6 did not.

> Given the runaway adoption of IPv4, there was a naive expectation that IPv6 would similarly just take off, and there was no need to give the transition much thought. In the first phase, we would expect to see applications, hosts and networks adding support for IPv6 in addition to IPv4, transforming the internet into a dual stack environment. In the second phase we could then phase out support for IPv4.

I really don't understand this, how do you not make a transition plan the #1 requirement for selecting the next IP. (But the article goes on to say...)

replies(2): >>41898002 #>>41907333 #
1. WorldMaker ◴[21 Oct 24 19:09 UTC] No.41907333[source]▶
> I really don't understand this, how do you not make a transition plan the #1 requirement for selecting the next IP.

To some extent, Postel's Law suggests the only viable transition plan for the internet is "no transition plan"; expect both to continue to exist as long as they both need to and do your best not to break things or step on each other's toes.

Relatedly, a slow "dual stack" IPv4 to IPv6 transition is as much validation for Postel's Law, and that is has been applied to a useful extreme, as anything else: traffic shifts as traffic needs to shift; the internet not only survives, it thrives; most users don't notice nor care.