The AI Investment Boom

The AI bubble will pop in the next year. We are currently in 1998 of the dotcom bubble with another AI winter approaching. LLM and generative AI are this year’s “on the Internet” or “Uber for X” business plans.

Will the AI bubble pop bring down the rest of the startup industry, or allow for more investment in non AI tech.

Climate related tech needs more money.

The market PE is very high and has been high for a while. Tech and AI are fueling a lot of that. Look what happened to Tesla when the fundamentals started getting a little discouraging. However, I'm not comfortable predicting the "AI bubble" popping next year.

Given the direction of the economy, we'd hit a recession and no one will be investing. So a loss for all tech. I argue we already are in one, but the US election cycle wants to delay that reality until 2025.

Though the US did do a pretty big rate cut. I imagine that will at least stall such a bubble burst into 2026 instead.

I don't think it will.

The economy bubble will be popped post-election (you will know when the Fed starts raising rates again), but CRE (commercial real estate) is likely the catalyst this time.

Within CRE, datacenters are the only item in the green in investors eyes, even more now because of the AI boom. I fully expect that class of investor to then dump more money than ever into energy generation and other sectors related to AI in order to escape the planned crash.

The biggest variable is if the supranational oligarchs are wanting to use this crash to cause a much more major shift in monetary policy such as CBDCs.

Did you mean to say cutting rates?