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410 points jjulius | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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bastawhiz ◴[] No.41889192[source]
Lots of people are asking how good the self driving has to be before we tolerate it. I got a one month free trial of FSD and turned it off after two weeks. Quite simply: it's dangerous.

- It failed with a cryptic system error while driving

- It started making a left turn far too early that would have scraped the left side of the car on a sign. I had to manually intervene.

- In my opinion, the default setting accelerates way too aggressively. I'd call myself a fairly aggressive driver and it is too aggressive for my taste.

- It tried to make way too many right turns on red when it wasn't safe to. It would creep into the road, almost into the path of oncoming vehicles.

- It didn't merge left to make room for vehicles merging onto the highway. The vehicles then tried to cut in. The system should have avoided an unsafe situation like this in the first place.

- It would switch lanes to go faster on the highway, but then missed an exit on at least one occasion because it couldn't make it back into the right lane in time. Stupid.

After the system error, I lost all trust in FSD from Tesla. Until I ride in one and feel safe, I can't have any faith that this is a reasonable system. Hell, even autopilot does dumb shit on a regular basis. I'm grateful to be getting a car from another manufacturer this year.

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modeless ◴[] No.41889518[source]
Tesla jumped the gun on the FSD free trial earlier this year. It was nowhere near good enough at the time. Most people who tried it for the first time probably share your opinion.

That said, there is a night and day difference between FSD 12.3 that you experienced earlier this year and the latest version 12.6. It will still make mistakes from time to time but the improvement is massive and obvious. More importantly, the rate of improvement in the past two months has been much faster than before.

Yesterday I spent an hour in the car over three drives and did not have to turn the steering wheel at all except for parking. That never happened on 12.3. And I don't even have 12.6 yet, this is still 12.5; others report that 12.6 is a noticeable improvement over 12.5. And version 13 is scheduled for release in the next two weeks, and the FSD team has actually hit their last few release milestones.

People are right that it is still not ready yet, but if they think it will stay that way forever they are about to be very surprised. At the current rate of improvement it will be quite good within a year and in two or three I could see it actually reaching the point where it could operate unsupervised.

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misiti3780 ◴[] No.41890174[source]
i have the same experience 12.5 is insanely good. HN is full of people that dont want self driving to succeed for some reason. fortunately, it's clear as day to some of us that tesla approach will work
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ethbr1 ◴[] No.41890270[source]
Curiousity about why they're against it and enunciating your why you think it will work would be more helpful.
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misiti3780 ◴[] No.41890659[source]
It's evident to Tesla drivers using Full Self-Driving (FSD) that the technology is rapidly improving and will likely succeed. The key reason for this anticipated success is data: any reasonably intelligent observer recognizes that training exceptional deep neural networks requires vast amounts of data, and Tesla has accumulated more relevant data than any of its competitors. Tesla recently held a robotaxi event, explicitly informing investors of their plans to launch an autonomous competitor to Uber. While Elon Musk's timeline predictions and politics may be controversial, his ability to achieve results and attract top engineering and management talent is undeniable.
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1. KaiserPro ◴[] No.41895855[source]
Tesla's sensor suite does not support safe FSD.

It relies on inferred depth from a single point of view. This means that the depth/positioning info for the entire world is noisy.

From a safety critical point of view its also bollocks, because a single birdshit/smear/raindrop/oil can render the entire system inoperable. Does it degrade safely? does it fuck.

> recognizes that training exceptional deep neural networks requires vast amounts of data,

You missed good data. Recording generic driver's journeys isn't going to yield good data, especially if the people who are driving aren't very good. You need to have a bunch of decent drivers doing specific scenarios.

Moreover that data isn't easily generalisable to other sensor suites. Add another camera? yeahna, new model.

> Tesla recently held a robotaxi event, explicitly informing investors of their plans

When has Musk ever delivered on time?

> his ability to achieve results

most of those results aren't that great. Tesla isn't growing anymore, its reliant on state subsidies to be profitable. They still only ship 400k units a quarter, which is tiny compared to VW's 2.2million.

> attract top engineering and management talent is undeniable

Most of the decent computer vision people are not in tesla. Hardware wise, their factories aren't fun places to be. He's a dick to work for, capricious and vindictive.