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410 points jjulius | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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AlchemistCamp ◴[] No.41889077[source]
The interesting question is how good self-driving has to be before people tolerate it.

It's clear that having half the casualty rate per distance traveled of the median human driver isn't acceptable. How about a quarter? Or a tenth? Accidents caused by human drivers are one of the largest causes of injury and death, but they're not newsworthy the way an accident involving automated driving is. It's all too easy to see a potential future where many people die needlessly because technology that could save lives is regulated into a greatly reduced role.

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Arainach ◴[] No.41889128[source]
This is about lying to the public and stoking false expectations for years.

If it's "fully self driving" Tesla should be liable for when its vehicles kill people. If it's not fully self driving and Tesla keeps using that name in all its marketing, regardless of any fine print, then Tesla should be liable for people acting as though their cars could FULLY self drive and be sued accordingly.

You don't get to lie just because you're allegedly safer than a human.

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jeremyjh ◴[] No.41889149[source]
I think this is the answer: the company takes on full liability. If a Tesla is Fully Self Driving then Tesla is driving it. The insurance market will ensure that dodgy software/hardware developers exit the industry.
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blagie ◴[] No.41889184[source]
This is very much what I would like to see.

The price of insurance is baked into the price of a car. If the car is as safe as I am, I pay the same price in the end. If it's safer, I pay less.

From my perspective:

1) I would *much* rather have Honda kill someone than myself. If I killed someone, the psychological impact on myself would be horrible. In the city I live in, I dread ageing; as my reflexes get slower, I'm more and more likely to kill someone.

2) As a pedestrian, most of the risk seems to come from outliers -- people who drive hyper-aggressively. Replacing all cars with a median driver would make me much safer (and traffic, much more predictable).

If we want safer cars, we can simply raise insurance payouts, and vice-versa. The market works everything else out.

But my stress levels go way down, whether in a car, on a bike, or on foot.

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gambiting ◴[] No.41889228[source]
>> I would much rather have Honda kill someone than myself. If I killed someone, the psychological impact on myself would be horrible.

Except that we know that it doesn't work like that. Train drivers are ridden with extreme guilt every time "their" train runs over someone, even though they know that logically there was absolutely nothing they could have done to prevent it. Don't see why it would be any different here.

>>If we want safer cars, we can simply raise insurance payouts, and vice-versa

In what way? In the EU the minimum covered amount for any car insurance is 5 million euro, it has had no impact on the safety of cars. And of course the recent increase in payouts(due to the general increase in labour and parts cost) has led to a dramatic increase in insurance premiums which in turn has lead to a drastic increase in the number of people driving without insurance. So now that needs increased policing and enforcement, which we pay for through taxes. So no, market doesn't "work everything out".

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1. blagie ◴[] No.41890554[source]
> Except that we know that it doesn't work like that. Train drivers are ridden with extreme guilt every time "their" train runs over someone, even though they know that logically there was absolutely nothing they could have done to prevent it. Don't see why it would be any different here.

It's not binary. Someone dying -- even with no involvement -- can be traumatic. I've been in a position where I could have taken actions to prevent someone from being harmed. Rationally not my fault, but in retrospect, I can describe the exact set of steps needed to prevent it. I feel guilty about it, even though I know rationally it's not my fault (there's no way I could have known ahead of time).

However, it's a manageable guilt. I don't think it would be if I knew rationally that it was my fault.

> So no, market doesn't "work everything out".

Whether or not a market works things out depends on issues like transparency and information. Parties will offload costs wherever possible. In the model you gave, there is no direct cost to a car maker making less safe cars or vice-versa. It assumes the car buyer will even look at insurance premiums, and a whole chain of events beyond that.

That's different if it's the same party making cars, paying money, and doing so at scale.

If Tesla pays for everyone damaged in any accident a Tesla car has, then Tesla has a very, very strong incentive to make safe cars to whatever optimum is set by the damages. Scales are big enough -- millions of cars and billions of dollars -- where Tesla can afford to hire actuaries and a team of analysts to make sure they're at the optimum.

As an individual car buyer, I have no chance of doing that.

Ergo, in one case, the market will work it out. In the other, it won't.