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Microsoft and OpenAI's close partnership shows signs of fraying

(www.nytimes.com)
321 points jhunter1016 | 26 comments | 18 Oct 24 11:11 UTC | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
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WithinReason ◴[18 Oct 24 12:04 UTC] No.41878604[source]▶
Does OpenAI have any fundamental advantage beyond brand recognition?
replies(15): >>41878633 #>>41878979 #>>41880635 #>>41880834 #>>41881554 #>>41881647 #>>41881720 #>>41881764 #>>41881926 #>>41882221 #>>41882479 #>>41882695 #>>41883076 #>>41883128 #>>41883207 #
og_kalu ◴[18 Oct 24 19:08 UTC] No.41882479[source]▶
The ChatGPT site crossed 3B visits last month (For perspective - https://imgur.com/a/hqE7jia). It has been >2B since May this year and >1.5B since March 2023. The Summer slump of last year ? Completely gone.

Gemini and Character AI ? A few hundred million. Claude ? Doesn't even register. And the gap has only been increasing.

So, "just" brand recognition ? That feels like saying Google "just" has brand recognition over Bing.

https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/ai-news/chatgpt-top...

replies(6): >>41883104 #>>41883831 #>>41884315 #>>41884501 #>>41884732 #>>41885686 #
1. DanHulton ◴[18 Oct 24 21:51 UTC] No.41883831[source]▶
I mean it's still not an impassibly strong moat. If it were, we'd all still be on MySpace and Digg.
replies(2): >>41883939 #>>41884087 #
2. qeternity ◴[18 Oct 24 22:08 UTC] No.41883939[source]▶
As model performance converges, it becomes the strongest moat. Why go to Claude for a marginally better model when you have the ChatGPT app downloaded and all your chat history there.
replies(3): >>41883995 #>>41884423 #>>41884443 #
3. segasaturn ◴[18 Oct 24 22:16 UTC] No.41883995[source]▶
I actually pre-emptively deleted ChatGPT and my account recently as I suspect that they're going to start aggressively putting ads and user tracking into the site and apps to build revenue. I also bet that if they do go through with putting ads into the app that daily user numbers will drop sharply - one of ChatGPT's biggest draws is its clean, no-nonsense UX. There are plenty of competitors that are as good as o1 so I have lots of choices to jump ship to.
replies(1): >>41884044 #
4. rbjorklin ◴[18 Oct 24 22:25 UTC] No.41884044{3}[source]▶
The day LLM responses start containing product placements is not far now.
replies(2): >>41884933 #>>41884935 #
5. sumedh ◴[18 Oct 24 22:33 UTC] No.41884087[source]▶
Myspace and Digg dug their own graves though. Myspace had a very confusing UX and Digg gave more control to advertisers. As long as OpenAI dont make huge mistakes they can hold on to their marketshare.
replies(2): >>41884209 #>>41884215 #
6. Mistletoe ◴[18 Oct 24 22:52 UTC] No.41884209[source]▶
The moat is bigger on MySpace and Digg though since you have user accounts, karma, userbases. The thing with chatbots is I can just as easily move to a different one, I have no history or username or anything and there is no network effect. I don't need all my friends to move to Gemini or Claude, I don't have any friends on OpenAI, it's just a prompt I can get anywhere.
replies(2): >>41884295 #>>41884831 #
7. Sabinus ◴[18 Oct 24 22:53 UTC] No.41884215[source]▶
OpenAI's revenue isn't from advertising, it should be slightly easier for them to resist the call of enshittification this early in the company history.
replies(1): >>41884519 #
8. jart ◴[18 Oct 24 23:05 UTC] No.41884295{3}[source]▶
Digg was basically Reddit except with a single subreddit.

Reddit demolished Digg because it offered people fiefs rather than just karma.

replies(4): >>41884900 #>>41885060 #>>41885694 #>>41887257 #
9. cen4 ◴[18 Oct 24 23:32 UTC] No.41884423[source]▶
True. ChatGPT has already won me over. I stopped even testing anything else.
10. attentive ◴[18 Oct 24 23:35 UTC] No.41884443[source]▶
Do you ever look at your chat history? why? how far back?
11. sumedh ◴[18 Oct 24 23:53 UTC] No.41884519{3}[source]▶
> OpenAI's revenue isn't from advertising,

OpenAI can become a bigger advertising company than Google.

When people ask questions like which product should I buy, ChatGpt can recommend products from companies who are willing to give money to it to have their products recommended by AI.

replies(1): >>41885328 #
12. moralestapia ◴[19 Oct 24 01:08 UTC] No.41884831{3}[source]▶
>it's just a prompt I can get anywhere

This broken record is still going at it, going at it, going at it, ...

And yet, ChatGPT is number one, by a far margin; where's all of this "people could switch in a day if they wanted"?

replies(2): >>41884890 #>>41887958 #
13. mplewis ◴[19 Oct 24 01:20 UTC] No.41884890{4}[source]▶
It’s literally the same product as all the other LLM competitors. If you kill ChatGPT, users will be on Claude in about three seconds.
replies(1): >>41888247 #
14. Terr_ ◴[19 Oct 24 01:22 UTC] No.41884900{4}[source]▶
Reddit had a much better system for commentary, as opposed to just reacting to URLs.

Sure, you could comment on Digg, but it was a pain and not good for conversations, and that meant there was less to keep people around when it seemed like the company was started to put their finger on the scales for URL-submissions.

replies(1): >>41887269 #
15. Terr_ ◴[19 Oct 24 01:29 UTC] No.41884933{4}[source]▶
And some of them will be from poisoned data, not just an explicit prompt by the site-owner.
16. Terr_ ◴[19 Oct 24 01:30 UTC] No.41884935{4}[source]▶
And some of them will be from poisoned data, not just an explicit prompt by the site-owner. A whole new form of spam--excuse me--"AI Engine Optimization."
17. downWidOutaFite ◴[19 Oct 24 01:57 UTC] No.41885060{4}[source]▶
Digg just wasn't big enough. Once these networks get to a certain size they're unkillable. Look at all the turmoil reddit went through, a hated redesign, killed 3rd party apps, a whole protest movement, none of it mattered. People bring up digg and friendster but that was 20 years ago when these networks were way smaller. No top 10 social network has died since then.
replies(1): >>41885659 #
18. sdesol ◴[19 Oct 24 03:03 UTC] No.41885328{4}[source]▶
This will only work if they can ensure the product that they promote is, in fact, good. Google makes it very clear that what you are seeing is popular (or is a paid ad), but they don't endorse it. ChatGPT is seen as an assistant for many, and if they start making bad recommendations, things can go bad fast.
19. jart ◴[19 Oct 24 04:33 UTC] No.41885659{5}[source]▶
Does Tumblr count? What about Pinterest? And Quora?
replies(1): >>41885825 #
20. 0xDEAFBEAD ◴[19 Oct 24 04:41 UTC] No.41885694{4}[source]▶
I believe the big Digg-to-reddit migration happened before you could create your own subreddit.
21. datadrivenangel ◴[19 Oct 24 05:25 UTC] No.41885825{6}[source]▶
Twitter? Give it time?
22. AndyNemmity ◴[19 Oct 24 11:41 UTC] No.41887257{4}[source]▶
Reddit demolished Digg because Digg actively antagonized it's most active users, and the will of the community similar to what X is doing.

Reddit had subreddits long before the migration. Reddit was a not very used site that had all the features.

It was Digg that made the decisions to force people off of it, not anything reddit did outside of having a space available that worked.

23. AndyNemmity ◴[19 Oct 24 11:42 UTC] No.41887269{5}[source]▶
It wasn't a pain on Digg, and it was equally good at conversations.

Reddit did not win due to it's features, it won because Digg said it doesn't matter what the users think, we will redesign the site and change how it works regardless of the majority telling us they don't want it.

replies(1): >>41889736 #
24. Mistletoe ◴[19 Oct 24 14:31 UTC] No.41887958{4}[source]▶
I did switch, I don’t use AI often but when I do, I just use Gemini and like it better.
25. moralestapia ◴[19 Oct 24 15:10 UTC] No.41888247{5}[source]▶
If you kill ChatGPT, users will be on Claude in about three seconds.

...

If you kill ChatGPT, users will be on Claude in about three seconds.

...

If you kill ChatGPT, users will be on Claude in about three seconds.

...

26. Terr_ ◴[19 Oct 24 18:47 UTC] No.41889736{6}[source]▶
> It wasn't a pain on Digg, and it was equally good at conversations.

No it wasn't, because it wasn't threaded. You had to linearly scan all the comments to see if anyone was replying.