Deriving the Kelly Criterion to Maximise Profits

A few links through, this Ship Investor simulator is a great super-simple game to test some intuition: https://xkqr.org/ship-investor/ship-investor.html

The game is a bit weird. It often offers very bad deals, without an option not to invest. For example for the Gibraltar strait, the game gives the information that the probablity of success is between 90% and 100% and that it’s been traversed 31 times with a 90 % success rate. Then it offers me the choice between an investment of different sizes, where I cannot win back more than my investment, so I have to risk money for no possible gain (invest 167 ducats in shipment worth 167 ducats).

Author here. Huh, you're right. 13 turns into the first scenario I opened[1] I get offered very weird deals, such as investing my full 184 ducats in a shipment worth only 182 ducats. Or! Investing 1878 ducats when I only own 184...

I wrote this game a few years ago, and it didn't use to have this bug. I can't take the time to figure it out now, but clearly something went wrong along the way!

[1]: Fortunately it's easily reproducible: put down the minimum in all first 12 turns and then look at the weirdness that is turn 13! https://xkqr.org/ship-investor/ship-investor.html?seed=883