How ham radio endures

Widespread access to space-based networks might finally kill hams. When disaster strikes, the guy with solar panels and a starlink terminal can facilitate more traffic than a hundred hams. Having cellphones that can get an SMS up to a sat might be more useful than handing out 4w radios.

Access to space-based network only works if it doesn't rely on a downlink connected to a fiber-optic network (eg: Starlink). There's nothing glamorous about amateur radio but being able to string up a wire and get a message hundreds or thousands of miles using only a 12V battery has its moments.

Starlink is better in this regard now. First, the ground station density in the US is really quite good and you're likely to be able to hit a single up/down path through most emergencies. And, second, over the last year they've turned on a lot of inter-satellite links (ISLs). The ISLs have a huge effect on reach -- you can now have a sat terminal in parts of eastern Africa and reach the ground station in Lagos, for example.

(No affiliation with them; I'm working with a Ph.D. student studying this question.)

I'd say that one advantage of ham is that you can operate it on much lower power equipment still - there's no such thing as a starlink HT yet, although we're starting to get close with cell phones with emergency satellite messaging. But starlink has a bandwidth advantage if you need to send photos or tunnel cell. Different capabilities - it's good to have both!

AC3ME