←back to thread

303 points FigurativeVoid | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
orbisvicis ◴[] No.41845194[source]
I'm not sure I see the big deal. Justification is on a scale of 0 to 1, and at 1 you are onmiscient. We live in a complicated world; no one has time to be God so you just accept your 0.5 JTB and move on.

Or for the belief part, well, "it's not a lie if you believe it".

And as for the true bit, let's assume that there really is a cow, but before you can call someone over to verify your JTB, an alien abducts the cow and leaves a crop circle. Now all anyone sees is a paper-mache cow so you appear the fool but did have a true JTB - Schroedinger's JTB. Does it really matter unless you can convince others of that? On the flip side, even if the knowledge is wrong, if everyone agrees it is true, does it even matter?

JTB only exist to highlight bad assumptions, like being on the wrong side of a branch predictor. If you have a 0.9 JTB but get the right answer 0.1 times and don't update you assumptions, then you have a problem. One statue in a field? Not a big deal! *

* Unless it's a murder investigation and you're Sherlock Holmes (a truly powerful branch predictor).

replies(5): >>41845236 #>>41845423 #>>41845590 #>>41846695 #>>41849187 #
ninetyninenine ◴[] No.41845590[source]
You're view is more inline with the philosophy of science which holds nothing an ever be justified.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/articles/Karl_Popper

read The problem of induction and demarcation: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/articles/Falsifiability

Basically to some it all up because we aren't "omniscient" nothing can in actuallity ever be known.

replies(3): >>41847290 #>>41847398 #>>41848836 #
orbisvicis ◴[] No.41847290[source]
Does the philosophy of science theorize anything about the end or limits of science and knowledge? I find that topic fascinating.
replies(1): >>41848982 #
1. ninetyninenine ◴[] No.41848982[source]
Yes. It says nothing can be proven in science and therefore reality as we know it. Things can only be falsified. But proof is the domain of mathematics… not of reality.

Read the example of the black swan in the wiki link.

replies(1): >>41851067 #
2. Maxatar ◴[] No.41851067[source]
Seems contradictory but you can clarify. If a proposition can be falsified then that is knowledge that said proposition is false, and the negation is true. If nothing can be proven or known then it must follow that nothing can be falsified.
replies(1): >>41851265 #
3. ninetyninenine ◴[] No.41851265[source]
First you need intuition on what's going on.

"All swans are white."

This statement cannot be proven because it's not possible to observe all swans. There may be some swan in some hidden corner of the earth (or universe) that I did not see.

If I see one black swan, I have falsified that statement.

When you refer to "Not all swans are white" This statement can be proven true but why? This is because the original statement is a universal claim and the negation is a particular claim.

The key distinction between universal claims and particular claims explains why you can "prove" the statement "Not all swans are white." Universal claims, like "All swans are white," attempt to generalize about all instances of a phenomenon. These kinds of statements can never be definitively proven true because they rely on inductive reasoning—no matter how many white swans are observed, there’s always the possibility that a counterexample (a non-white swan) will eventually be found.

In contrast, particular claims are much more specific. The statement "Not all swans are white" is a particular claim because it is based on falsification—it only takes the observation of one black swan to disprove the universal claim "All swans are white." Since black swans have been observed, we can confidently say "Not all swans are white" is true.

Popper's philosophy focuses on how universal claims can never be fully verified (proven true) through evidence, because future observations could always contradict them. However, universal claims can be falsified (proven false) with a single counterexample. Once a universal claim is falsified, it leads to a particular claim like "Not all swans are white," which can be verified by specific evidence.

In essence, universal claims cannot be proven true because they generalize across all cases, while particular claims can be proven once a falsifying counterexample is found. That's why you can "prove" the statement "Not all swans are white"—it’s based on specific evidence from reality, in contrast to the uncertain generality of universal claims.

To sum it up. When I say nothing can be proven and things can only be falsified... it is isomorphic to saying universal claims can't be proven, particular claims can.