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589 points atomic128 | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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jmyeet ◴[] No.41842462[source]
SMRs ain't it [1]. The LCOE of nuclear is the worst of any power geneartion method. The failure modes are catastrophic. Chernobyl has an absolute exclusion deal ~40 years later of 1000 square miles (literally). Fukushima's clean up costs will approach $1 trillion [2] and take likely over a century. These get hand-waved away as irrelevant outliers.

The idea that SMRs are safer is yet to be proven. SMRs have a scaling issue in that a larger reactor is simply more efficient.

Solar currently can produce about 1000 Watts per square meter (likely 200-400 in practice) so 500MW of power is going to be 1-1.5 square kilometers of solar panels. You can say it's varies in effectiveness geographically. That's true. But you can build your data centers pretty much anywhere. The Sun Belt, California or Colorado spring to mind [3].

Data centers just don't need a base load. You can simply not run them when there isn't sufficient power. Google already does. Its data center in Finland basically shuts down when it gets too hot. It's otherwise cooled by the sea. This was deemed to be more efficient than having active cooling infrastructure.

So 500MW of power is what? 4B kWh/year? In California, one benchmark I found was about 10kWh/year per square foot. That's ~4 square kilometers as a very conservative estimate.

[1]: https://blog.ucsusa.org/edwin-lyman/five-things-the-nuclear-...

[2]: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/16/fukushimas-final-costs-...

[3]: https://neo.ne.gov/programs/stats/pdf/201_solar_leadership.p...

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onlyrealcuzzo ◴[] No.41843199[source]
Fukushima is really the only outlier, and the lesson learned should be it's probably a bad idea to build nuclear reactors near active fault lines.

Most of the extremely pessimistic total cost estimates are around $750B for Fukushima, and that's not the present value. That's money spent so far in the future the discount rate is substantial. Japan's official estimate is $187B, with probably a $100B NPV.

Chernobyl was an inherently (and well known) unsafe design. When you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

The cost of burning fossil fuels is estimated to be well, well over $1T.

Nothing comes for free. Pick your poison.

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1. jmyeet ◴[] No.41843368[source]
> Most of the extremely pessimistic total cost estimates are around $750B for Fukushima

This isn't the defense or retort that you think it is. This is from ONE incident. The industry recognizes the long tail of catastrophic failures is so large that laws have been passed to limit nuclear power liability in the US. I'm talking specifically about the Price-Anderson Act [1].

This severely limits nuclear power liability to ~$500 million per incident. That's a lot less than $1T or $750B or whatever figure you prefer. So who picks up the tab in a catastrophic event? Taxpayers. It's another example of how nuclear power can only exist with government subsidies. Yet we apparently want to trust private corporations to manage nuclear power plants and take the profits while shifting the risk to the public.

Additionally there's a self-insurance fund, but it would be completely inadequate to cover an incident like Fukushima. This is recognized [2].

> The cost of burning fossil fuels is estimated to be well, well over $1T.

So this is a strawman on two fronts. First, you're comparing the cost of a single massive failure by one plant to the entire fossil fuel industry. Second, I never even said fossil fuel power. I said solar.

[1]: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10821

[2]: https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/the-us-government-insurance-...