This seems to essentially be saying that coincidences will happen and if you’re fooled by them, sometimes it’s not your fault - they are “justified.” But they may be caused by enemy action: who put that decoy cow there? I guess they even made it move a little?
How careful do you have to be to never be fooled? For most people, a non-zero error rate is acceptable. Their level of caution will be adjusted based on their previous error rate. (Seen in this sense, perfect knowledge in a philosophical sense is a quest for a zero error rate.)
In discussions of how to detect causality, one example is flipping a light switch to see if it makes the light go on and off. How many flips do you need in order to be sure it’s not coincidence?
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