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Scale Ruins Everything

(coldwaters.substack.com)
175 points drc500free | 52 comments | | HN request time: 1.051s | source | bottom
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endo_bunker ◴[] No.41841389[source]
Comical to suggest that AirBnB "ruined communities" or "destroyed the dream of home ownership" as if decades of federal, state, and local government policy had not already guaranteed those outcomes.
replies(10): >>41841436 #>>41841453 #>>41841646 #>>41841877 #>>41841931 #>>41842064 #>>41842765 #>>41848413 #>>41850468 #>>41851808 #
1. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41841453[source]
Airbnb has in fact ruined communities and destroyed the dream of home ownership for an entire class of people: those who would already be buying at the limits of their budgets to stay where they were brought up.

This happened even in areas where holiday home ownership and rental was common as a business.

The failure of government to grapple with the negative effects of Airbnb is a separate thing. Airbnb are, in fact, in control of their own morality.

replies(9): >>41841732 #>>41841783 #>>41841959 #>>41842022 #>>41842074 #>>41842482 #>>41842661 #>>41844625 #>>41848727 #
2. robertlagrant ◴[] No.41841732[source]
You need to explain why AirBnB did this as opposed to other factors. Renting your house out predates AirBnB.
replies(1): >>41841917 #
3. etothepii ◴[] No.41841783[source]
As a home owner that was only able to afford to buy a house because we were able to rent out the spare rooms on AirBnb I find fault in your logic.

I think you'll find that zoning/planning permission is the real bad guy here. That and a failure to understand Adam Smith and implement the ideas of Henry George.

replies(2): >>41842052 #>>41842133 #
4. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41841917[source]
I need to?

Thanks for the unnecessary correction, when it's pretty clear that my comment you are replying to includes the words "even in areas where holiday home ownership and rental was common as a business".

I don't know why it did not happen before.

All I know is that the situation in coastal resort towns in Cornwall, Devon, and elsewhere in the UK changed utterly when Airbnb became a thing.

I could guess that barrier to entry was always an issue before then; the relative complexity and process involved in listing a property with e.g. Hoseasons, who were the dominant player in the 80s and 90s, and who inspected properties and had greater requirements.

But either way, Airbnb did unambiguously change things. Ask people who lived in Cornish towns whether they're even able to rent a room or a flat.

replies(1): >>41842013 #
5. Hammershaft ◴[] No.41841959[source]
AirBnB rentals are not making it criminal to build supply, local zoning regulations that benefit incumbents at the expense of everyone else are what make it criminal to build supply.

It's a defect at the intersection of capitalism, property ownership, and democracy.

replies(1): >>41842756 #
6. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41842013{3}[source]
I mean, usually if thing popular, make more of thing until everyone can have it? I guess we could go with your solution of deliberately killing demand with bizarre mechanisms so only a few people can enjoy a holiday instead of pointing the blame where it demands: locals fighting tooth and nail to not build more.

Nimbys are basically hukou advocates in disguise. After all, it's the only solution if you don't primarily place the blame on lack of construction.

replies(1): >>41842119 #
7. lacy_tinpot ◴[] No.41842022[source]
AirBnB destroyed home ownership?

As far as I can remember AirBnB didn't cause the 2008 financial disaster that really sealed the fate of homeownership in America for the next decade for a lot of Americans.

AirBnB has provided an avenue to generate income for small business owners in rural communities. Urban areas are struggling because they aren't building more.

BUILD MORE. How difficult is it to understand that?

replies(2): >>41842179 #>>41850611 #
8. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41842052[source]
> because we were able to rent out the spare rooms on AirBnb

Unless you were the very first person in the entire area to think to do so, then the existence of that very market for you to rent spare rooms on is actually driving up the prices of properties so you have to do so.

It's also driving up the prices of long term rental, because landlords make more money in the short-term rental market. The prices of long-term rental also affect the floor price of permanent ownership.

replies(1): >>41850022 #
9. TrainedMonkey ◴[] No.41842074[source]
> Airbnb has in fact ruined communities and destroyed the dream of home ownership for an entire class of people

That is fair, but also misses the point. The issue with AirBnB is not that they are evil company and must be regulated. It's that they operate in a system where housing is an investment vehicle due to artificially constrained supply and tax system that is riddled with well intentioned and widely abused property ownership cuts. At worst they have accelerated the issue rather than caused it.

> Airbnb are, in fact, in control of their own morality.

Not entirely, they are a publicly listed company and will get sued if they do anything that will hurt the stock price.

10. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41842119{4}[source]
> make more of thing until everyone can have it?

There are literal physical limits on this in many coastal villages and towns -- for example pick almost anywhere on the south west coast of the UK. Not only is the area on which houses can be built restrictive due to geography (and often geology), the transport infrastructure does not scale. New property building both has not caught up with, and probably cannot catch up with, short term demand.

As it happens, a collapse seems likely, because local sentiment is turning against them so fast and because of general economic weakness; the number of "thriving holiday let" properties that are on the market now suggests that Airbnb's own accelerating rental costs problem is going to cause a bit of a bust.

But that bust will not benefit most of the people in the areas affected where the price of a small house is twenty to thirty times the average salary of would-be-first-time-buyers. Those people are leaving, so there will instead be a ghost town. And the sheer number of residents who are temporary has destroyed the potential for long-term stable infrastructure businesses for residents.

> Nimbys are basically hukou advocates in disguise.

It's nothing to do with nimbyism, is it? Nimbys are property owners. The problem only affects people who do not have back yards. They can no longer afford the houses at the prices at which they will be built and the rates at which they can be.

replies(2): >>41842500 #>>41861995 #
11. ToucanLoucan ◴[] No.41842133[source]
> As a home owner that was only able to afford to buy a house because we were able to rent out the spare rooms on AirBnb I find fault in your logic.

Then you're a landlord who has purchased more of a scarce resource than they require (a house larger than you need) who has then turned around and rented access to the extra you have to people who can't afford a home of their own, and in so doing have driven the cost of homeowner-ship just slightly higher, which was the reason you couldn't afford it in the first place. Repeat that a few thousand times and that's a huge contributing factor to why housing is in such a dire state here.

You haven't solved anything. You just went from being an exploited person to being an exploiter instead, taking advantage of people you should have solidarity with and inflicting the harm the system was inflicting on you, onto them instead. The system will continue feasting on people who can't manage the same as you did, and you now posses wealth you did not earn.

replies(3): >>41842558 #>>41842741 #>>41850654 #
12. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41842179[source]
> AirBnB destroyed home ownership?

What I said was rather more specifically qualified than that.

replies(1): >>41842832 #
13. kelnos ◴[] No.41842482[source]
Oh please. NIMBYs ruined home ownership. Airbnb certainly hasn't had zero contribution to higher home prices, but abolishing short-term rentals hasn't fixed affordability issues anywhere it's been done.
14. kelnos ◴[] No.41842500{5}[source]
> It's nothing to do with nimbyism, is it? Nimbys are property owners. The problem only affects people who do not have back yards.

NIMBYs are property owners who vote for restrictive housing development policy in order to prop up their own home values.

Eliminate the NIMBYs and you end up with a lot more people who can have their own backyard.

replies(3): >>41843210 #>>41845776 #>>41849589 #
15. kelnos ◴[] No.41842558{3}[source]
Homes on the market aren't infinitely customizable. It seems perfectly likely that GP would have been happy to buy a home with exactly the amount of space they needed, but such a home was not available at a price they could pay. (Maybe they settled for a slightly less-nice neighborhood, or a slightly less-nice house, that just happened to provide an extra room or two.)

Even if that wasn't the case, I don't see a problem with buying slightly larger than is necessary, because (for example) perhaps they're planning to have a couple kids in the next few years, but will rent out the extra space until then. Moving is transactionally expensive, and expecting someone to move every few years as their space needs change is unreasonable.

Regardless, you seem a bit overly judgmental about this entire situation, and about someone you don't know at all.

16. eddd-ddde ◴[] No.41842661[source]
Honestly I'm not convinced when an airbnb is cheaper to me than renting some other place. It even includes furniture!
replies(1): >>41850709 #
17. lacy_tinpot ◴[] No.41842741{3}[source]
You need to really distinguish between rent seeking landowners, and value add landowners.

Landowners that have made improvements to the land and seek financial compensation for those improvements, in this case in the form of providing a service, is NOT rent seeking behavior.

That is NOT exploitation.

This is even basic economics from an extremely leftist POV, where those that have added labor value, that is improvements to the land, in this case providing a service and perhaps building a unit, managing them, etc. should be compensated for their labor.

Like this is extremely basic stuff.

replies(1): >>41843066 #
18. g-b-r ◴[] No.41842756[source]
What do you think would happen if you filled a cozy touristic town with skyscrapers?
replies(1): >>41843423 #
19. lacy_tinpot ◴[] No.41842832{3}[source]
> Airbnb has in fact ruined communities and destroyed the dream of home ownership for an entire class of people: those who would already be buying at the limits of their budgets to stay where they were brought up.

The thing that's "ruined communities and destroyed the dream of home ownership" is the incapacity of the community, "where they were brought up", to actually change and accommodate increasing demands.

In reality these individuals from these communities are using Left rhetoric to advocate an extremely conservative position. That is for the community to remain as is, in the exact way such people were "brought up", such that no progress, no change, no additional value is added to the communities.

What ends up happening because of this confused policy is that the individuals in these communities both lose out on their hometown, the community ends up changing, and it becomes impossibly expensive for everyone in the community. IE the worst of all options.

Instead. Build more. Build vertically. Build better infrastructure. Provide for local residents an opportunity to "buy-in".

This kind of cloaked conservatism, masquerading itself using leftist rhetoric ends up being confused from a policy POV.

replies(1): >>41843121 #
20. ToucanLoucan ◴[] No.41843066{4}[source]
> You need to really distinguish between rent seeking landowners, and value add landowners.

No, I don't. Rent-seeking is derided behavior by basically everyone who isn't rent-seeking.

If you buy property, improve it, and sell it, there's your profit for providing that service. No ethical lapse whatsoever, unless you used that godawful gray laminate that every flipper uses. Then I'm mad at you still but that's a different reason.

If you own a thing that people need, and you gate access to it behind a paywall while maintaining ownership, and extract value from those people so they may use it but retain full ownership and control of it, that's rent-seeking and it sucks. You're the economic version of wind drag.

Yes, that includes the 98 year old lady who rents out a room to fill the gaps left by social security to the nice young man who's going to college in the area. Still value extraction. That young man is losing the value of his labor because he has to live somewhere and she has space he can live in. That's unethical.

replies(3): >>41843134 #>>41844836 #>>41848558 #
21. PaulDavisThe1st ◴[] No.41843121{4}[source]
Lots of assumptions buried in here.

There are rural/tourist-dependent communities that had an adequate supply of housing when the only visitor accomodation was licensed as a hotel/motel/inn/B&B/hostel. They didn't need a lot of extra, but some slack to accomodate tourist season workers, and occasional new arrivals.

Then AirBnB came along and converted not just the slack, but some residential property that would otherwise have been available for long term lease, into much more profitable short term rentals.

Income at licensed residential stays sometimes drops; short term and long term housing options either vanish or are reduced; problems begin to occur that were not present before.

None of this is in any way dependent on the failures caused by zoning, permitting and housing policy.

This story has been repeated at tourist locations across the world.

AirBnB was fundamentally a message to anyone with residential property: you can make more money with it as a short term rental than via any other use. This is why in many locations we've seen new construction of residential property intended solely for short term rentals. Nobody wanted to build that stuff when it was only going to be LTR; AirBnB changed the game.

replies(1): >>41845599 #
22. PaulDavisThe1st ◴[] No.41843134{5}[source]
> godawful gray laminate

dude! godawful gray granite or go home :)

23. PaulDavisThe1st ◴[] No.41843210{6}[source]
Don't have to be property owners. Anyone who can show up at a meeting, vote, submit comments ...
replies(2): >>41848275 #>>41861971 #
24. Hammershaft ◴[] No.41843423{3}[source]
Who is building skyscrapers in a cozy tourist town? Do you really think zoning laws are the only thing standing between tiny towns and a bustling metropolis?

If there is strong demand for housing, you might see bungalows turn into town homes or townhomes turn into mixed use 3 story flats... Which tend to be much more economically productive for the local gov anyways because the cost of infrastructure & services per person drops.

replies(2): >>41843504 #>>41845988 #
25. g-b-r ◴[] No.41843504{4}[source]
If there were no rules some people would build as much as they could, so long as it stayed profitable

Some zoning rules are worse, some better, but without rules at all many places would get ruined quickly

26. EasyMark ◴[] No.41844625[source]
There are many factors, and Abnb can be one of them, but it’s not the only read. Zoning laws, economic landscape of the town, etc all play into to the lack of affordable housing. I would posit NIMBYism and zoning are likely the biggest ones.
27. lacy_tinpot ◴[] No.41844836{5}[source]
> Rent-seeking is derided behavior by basically everyone who isn't rent-seeking.

Rent-seeking is something specific. If we can't get that right we're not going to get far into the discussion. Not all rents are the same.

Hotels rent rooms. But they are not the same as rent seeking.

If you're not creating new wealth/value add, and instead exploit rents by mere virtue of owning, then it is rent-seeking. If you're adding value, like providing a service or other additions, then no it's not rent seeking. The 98 year old lady? Probably rent seeking. The couple doing AirBnB? Probably not.

Why?

AirBnBs, like hotels, tend to provide a genuine service that adds value. The listings are in a competitive market, where people need to improve the living spaces in order for them to get rented out. This doesn't take into account the various hospitality businesses that have emerged in various rural communities because of AirBnB. It's an entire industry.

That is Hotels/Hospitality businesses are NOT rent seeking just because they rent out rooms or provide services on land they own.

Who is Rent-Seeking?

The people preventing new housing/infrastructure from being built are the ones rent-seeking. They artificially manipulate market conditions by restricting supply, driving up land value, and thereby generate unearned income. Income that isn't from productive improvements on land but from mere ownership of land. That unearned income on land is rent-seeking behavior.

28. eszed ◴[] No.41845599{5}[source]
You and GP are talking past each other a bit, because they're speaking to the general case, whilst you're narrowing it to tourist-dependent areas. I grew up in a tourist region, and it's been ruined (from the point of view of those of us who are from there, and might have wanted to stick around) exactly as you say.

The complicating factor (which they miss) for a tourist region is that if your "product" is (in part) Small Town Charm, or Rural Character, then you can't build, baby, build without destroying the economic underpinning of the entire community. I wish my hometown had allowed for more hotels (like, decades ago - they were horribly regulator-captured for ages), and had the wisdom to restrict STR before it became such a thing.

For anywhere with a non-tourism based economy, however, I think they are correct: increasing supply is the only possible solution.

It only occurs to me upon writing this that areas without any existing tourist infrastructure are becoming tourist-dependent on the basis of STR, which might be the worst of both worlds. Those places need to allow hotels and (actual) B&Bs, before they ruin their communities through STR-tourist dependence.

29. rightbyte ◴[] No.41845776{6}[source]
AirBnB did 'eliminate' the NIMBYs by sidestepping local zoning laws.

And the outcome was bad for people living in these targets for mass tourism. Unless they were a YIMBY of course and wanted a hostel in their backyard.

'NIMBY' is like 'Karen' or 'boomer'. Some sort of convenient scapegoat, deserving or not.

replies(1): >>41862037 #
30. LunaSea ◴[] No.41845988{4}[source]
Maybe not skyscrapers but very high tourism rental apartment buildings.

You can look at the Belgian coast for an example of this enshitification of coastal real estate.

31. bluGill ◴[] No.41848275{7}[source]
Anyone can, but existing property owners do.
32. digital-cygnet ◴[] No.41848558{5}[source]
Sorry, what's your position here - that any renting of a property is an "economic rent" and thus immoral? That makes little sense to me. I am a renter and glad to be so because I'm not confident I want to live in my current home for the 5-10 years it takes for purchasing it to be worthwhile. The landlord is providing me a service, turning a big, illiquid asset into something that can be accessed with only a 1-year time commitment. This is economically productive (allows me to live somewhere I otherwise wouldn't) and is hence not an "economic rent".

The classic example of an economic rent is a feudal lord putting a chain across a river and charging a toll. This is economically unproductive because it's just putting a price on something that was free (and, you have to assume for the example, non-rivalrous). This is why the sibling comment points out that the rent-seekers in the housing market are more like the people seeking to constrain supply via zoning and regulation.

33. 01HNNWZ0MV43FF ◴[] No.41848727[source]
As an aside, I own a home and now merely dream that renting should be as cheap as owning. Having equity in something that needs constant repair, loses heat on all sides, and has a bunch of fucking grass around it, is only equivalent to a certain amount of cash.

I suspect the real reason owning is cheap is not that it's inherently better, but because everything is cheaper when you have lots of money.

34. bumby ◴[] No.41849589{6}[source]
>Eliminate the NIMBYs

This is said rather matter-of-factly, but how do you propose doing that in a society with democratic values (ie people get a voice in their governance) and also where 70% of most household wealth is in their property?

replies(1): >>41861938 #
35. etothepii ◴[] No.41850022{3}[source]
I have friends and family. From time to time I would like to host them when they visit so we can drink alcohol and stay up late.

Consequently it is always likely that one might want at least one more room than is needed by the family. It additionally provides buffer overflow should the pitter-patter of tiny drains on one's resources appear.

In such circumstances renting out a spare room on a longish licence should necessarily reduce rents since now there is an option which is likely to be cheaper. Renting out a spare room for other people visiting ones city should similarly have had a depressive impact on the price of hotels or an improvement in their offering.

Given the inconvenience and reduced amenity one gains from living in a house under multiple occupation there is further no specific reason why it should be the case that this does not more than offset the cash remuneration meaning there is no in principle reason why the capital cost of such a property should increase.

replies(1): >>41850498 #
36. insane_dreamer ◴[] No.41850498{4}[source]
Yours is not a common case. That was the original dream of AirBNB and the appeal of staying with a family in some far away place made it cool.

The vast majority of AirBNBs are the entire house or some separate guest cottage. Many are owned and managed by larger companies. Or by people who own multiple houses.

The individual home owner renting out a room so they can cover their mortgage has become more of an outlier.

replies(1): >>41853313 #
37. BlueTemplar ◴[] No.41850611[source]
The 2008 financial disaster, in particular speaking of home ownership issues was mostly limited to the USA though.

Americas are a lot bigger than the USA, and the unicorns had a disruptive effect wider still.

38. dnissley ◴[] No.41850654{3}[source]
People have desires that go beyond their needs, and so long as they have money they will spend it to satisfy them.

If we, as a society, took this into account we would make it easier to build more housing.

The fact that we don't is the moral, ethical, and economic tragedy of our age.

39. BlueTemplar ◴[] No.41850709[source]
Speaking of, at some point even middle class families could afford to live in a hotel year long. Are these days coming back ? What happened for that to become uneconomical for a while ? (Is it a symptom of the middle class getting much smaller ?)
40. etothepii ◴[] No.41853313{5}[source]
I agree with your statements but believe the solution to be the abolition, or substantial reduction, of planning controls and the introduction of a Georgist Land Tax.

Airbnb demonstrates that there was clearly substantial demand for "house style" hotel rooms but hotels chose not to provide them. In most hotels where a room is $400 a suite with a space to work, watch tv and cook, might be $10,000. The hotel market optimised for the business man travelling alone to conferences and paid a price for it. Even my favourite hotel on earth does not provide an "ordinary menu" for the nights where you just want to curl up with your loved one and watch a film - it's Michelin star dining or bust.

In most hotels the only amenity that a hotel offers that is "better" than the home experience is a swimming pool and daily housekeeping.

Who, but the richest amongst us, has their bed linen changed _every day_?

If hotels had been built as apartments with no zoning restrictions arbitrarily placed upon them there would have been an option for the hotels to adapt by offering their rooms up on a long lease.

41. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41861938{7}[source]
Japan does this just fine: they have standardized zoning across all municipalities, decided at the national level.
replies(1): >>41863699 #
42. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41861971{7}[source]
Sure, and anyone can make their own crypto implementation that's not based on reference, but what matters isn't the theory but the actual facts: the overwhelming majority of community meeting retirees are retired homeowners.

Look at your local suburban school district's bond: you'll probably see some age-based exemption on paying to get support because old people are by far the most engaged. Is that democratic? In the sense that its based on votes of a voluntary electorate, yes. Is it the representative will? Clearly not! You want to cluster elections around high turnout to maximize representation.

43. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41861995{5}[source]
Please answer the solution to people not being able to afford back yards. Price is a clearing indicator on supply and demand: you can either crush demand or boost supply. If nimbys block supply increases, you either have to pick people to kick out or forbid other people from moving in.

Where do you think the AirBNBs came from? Some people decided to move out, and the people that moved in decided that others would get better use experiencing the property part-time as reflected in market prices. Would you ban them from making this choice? Would you screen every buyer not based on their own assessed price but on ever so shifting "intent"? Would you make the intent they declare at the start binding?

EDIT: I'll bet you $100 to your charity of choice that physical constraints aren't binding in the case you're thinking of (this could be shown by, despite a lax / encouraging planning environment, no one building anything).

44. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41862037{7}[source]
I could turn around and say "the outcome was bad for people willing to receive all of the benefits of a free-to-travel society in a bustling town but none of the costs." Of course if you say "mass tourism" it's bad, but idk, do you like to travel? If hundreds of thousands want to visit a beautiful town, should we limit supply in a way that makes it impossible for them to visit? There are millions of alternatives (you could ban lyft or cars for non-natives, you could restrict development to a resort and gated community on one part of town, etc) but the whole reason it's called NIMBY is because the only alternative NIMBYs have is freezing a town in amber while claiming a triple lock raise in pensions.

Zoning laws are, for the most part, a mistake. Any solution to housing prices that isn't a boost in supply either leads to scarcity or hideous Danwei-style planning that reaches into peoples life plans and the ability to afford a future.

45. bumby ◴[] No.41863699{8}[source]
What percent of Japanese household net worth is in their primary residence and how much has this been impacted by their largely stagnant stock market for the last 40 years?

I'm skeptical that national zoning is feasible if for no other reason than the diversity of land and land uses.

replies(1): >>41864281 #
46. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41864281{9}[source]
Are you arguing for affordability? You can't have both affordability and high price (= huge % of net worth).

It's a very bad thing for people to invest in a fundamentally depreciating asset and expect a return, there's literally no other way to get a return then besides inflation.

And sure, returns have been low, but that's because the real interest rate in Japan for the last 30 years has been negative! You can't get a return if the fundamental balance of loanable funds leads to a negative real interest rate, you need stimulus instead, which they've been trying for over thirty years! And shocker, now that we're seeing Japanese interest rates rise, Japanese stocks are shooting up!

replies(1): >>41872151 #
47. bumby ◴[] No.41872151{10}[source]
I'm trying to get clarity on this statement:

>Japan does this just fine

You seem to be implying Japan's scenario adequately mirrors the U.S. In other words, they have a high proportion of their net worth tied up in real estate, which is what I am pointing to as a driver of NIMBY-ism. If that analogy doesn't hold, then I would argue it's not an apt analogy and probably doesn't offer much in terms of policy insight.

Also, in the US, I don't think you can argue that real estate in general is a "fundamentally depreciating" asset. I don't think the recent history is illustrative, but over the long term real estate tends to be positive.

replies(1): >>41873099 #
48. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41873099{11}[source]
Real estate is fundamentally depreciating: you build a building, it exhibits wear and tear, it's worth nothing in the long run. Assets are usually valued off of future cashflows, which would be the long-run rent it can fetch. For most investments, you just shove this into a calculator with the current risk free rate and it spits out a number that's the current price. The rent declines in the case of a building with the wear until it's condemned, at which point it goes to zero. I'm saying this because just because something is fundamentally depreciating doesn't mean it won't have real yields, my point is looking at the yields from a capital appreciation perspective is kinda distracting where fundamental yields come from. Usually, capital appreciation is far more muddled (did capital become cheaper, leading to bidding up of yields? did people secularly just want to pay more for renting a house? etc)

Of course in the US there's been huge capital appreciation: housing and shelter went from 10% of CPI in the 60s to 40% of CPI today! Are you going to keep drawing the line and say "yeah, it's totally reasonable for us to continue it to have capital appreciation out-of-line of actual yields when supply and demand are balanced" - like how far is enough for you? 50% of CPI? 60? You're never going to be able to get the real appreciation that we've had over the last 40 years because that'd take us to 160% of CPI!!!

replies(1): >>41873582 #
49. bumby ◴[] No.41873582{12}[source]
You understand that a real estate asset is not just the building, right? The land is what typically appreciates in value (maybe the building depending on labor/material costs). I've also already pointed out that recent history is anomalous in terms of property appreciation. Still historical averages are generally positive.

Regardless, all of that is a digression from the original question: does Japan have a similar dynamic where the bulk of household net worth is tied up in real estate? That's central to my claim that people are more protective of the assets tied to their wealth. In other words, we need to be careful about thinking Japan provides an example if there is a different wealth dynamic. It seems like you are trying to have a different conversation.

replies(1): >>41883620 #
50. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41883620{13}[source]
I don't talk about your point because it's kinda irrelevant? Like it doesn't extend from "wealth is tied up in x" to "we should cartelize around x to push it above fundamental value."
replies(1): >>41888066 #
51. bumby ◴[] No.41888066{14}[source]
All it takes to understand the relevance is the understanding that outcomes are coupled to incentives. You think it’s irrelevant to NIMBYism that people have incentives to protect their wealth? I…dont think many (any?) economists would agree with you.

To be generous so as not to think you just have a problem conceding a point, you seem hung up on the moral argument. I’m not making a moral argument. I’m explaining the how it is, and not making a claim about how it ought to be. FWIW I think it’s stupid that people have 70% of their wealth tied up in a non-liquid asset, but that’s the scenario we’re dealing with. People are incentivized to keep their wealth high, and especially home wealth because it gives them equity to borrow against. Likewise governments like having high property values because it gives them a larger tax base.

So there’s two salient aspects to the point: 1) people have a say in how they are governed in a democracy and 2) people/govts have economic incentives to protect their wealth/tax base. NIMBYism is the convergence of both. So which do you disagree with?

replies(1): >>41888498 #
52. JackYoustra ◴[] No.41888498{15}[source]
Oh, I see. This makes more sense.

I agree that, insofar as local governments go, NIMBYism is the inevitable convergence of both, and if the story stops there, there's not too many scalable solutions. I guess my point is that NIMBYism need not be the convergence of both in the general case. In CA at least, forming a YIMBY coalition is (obviously) democratic and is formed in response to housing being 40% of CPI (so trying to increase aggregate wealth). The reforms need not cause nominal declines in housing prices! Merely stopping growth is enough to cause real declines.