America's new millionaire class: Plumbers and HVAC entrepreneurs

My theory behind the big private equity play behind buying up all the HVAC companies is that some smart people on wall street realized that R22 refrigerant was banned, and basically any system using R22 that was installed before 2010 will have to be replaced in the coming years because you can’t find the refrigerant needed to charge your system.

My view is that someone just went over list of industries and asked can we afford to get regional monopoly here. That is do we yet have enough money to buy out enough of certain regional markets to extract enough value to make it worthwhile. Value of jobs don't even need to have anything big coming up see vetinary clinics.

It seems like it’s changing every year. Why can’t we just settle on one standard and let us start lowering costs again? I shouldn’t have to pay 10k to replace my AC.

(I like the idea of using propane as a refrigerant. Surprisingly efficient. Very cheap. And I don’t think there’s enough to be more dangerous than a grill?)

I think you'll be able to buy R22 for at least another 6 (and probably another 11+) years, at which point that system will be 20 (or 25+) years old and replacing it won't be viewed as out of the ordinary, nor provide a particular bonanza of income/profits to HVAC companies.

The PE play is always "I see people getting good service at a fair price. That indicates I am not making enough money."

There's been a running joke about it since the R12 days.

The joke is usually some play on government being in bed with the chemical industry lobbyists and banning things as soon as the 3rd world starts being able to make them cheaply.

A lot of people in various countries just charge R-22 and R-12 systems with purified propane. (or regular propane too)

You're not supposed to need to charge it in the first place. Once it's leaking like that, the system generally needs to be replaced, due to some microscopic leak springing somewhere in the welds.