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The waiting time paradox: why is my bus always late? (2018)

(jakevdp.github.io)
219 points skadamat | 1 comments | 20 Aug 24 13:55 UTC | HN request time: 0.315s | source
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rjmunro ◴[20 Aug 24 17:11 UTC] No.41301868[source]▶
There's another thing that happens with busses that makes it worse.

The further behind the previous bus a bus is, the more people will arrive at the bus stop. The more people there are at the stop, the longer the bus has to spend picking them all up and selling them tickets etc. Therefore the delayed bus will tend to experience more delay. The bus behind them will have less people to pick up, so it will spend a shorter time at stops and tend to catch up with the first bus, so the two busses are dragged towards each other.

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mitthrowaway2 ◴[20 Aug 24 18:05 UTC] No.41302390[source]▶
That bus with more riders on board also has a higher probability of needing to stop to let people off at each location as well, slowing it down even further!
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Gravityloss ◴[20 Aug 24 19:05 UTC] No.41302948[source]▶
Robotic buses could be made smaller than driver buses since the cost of driver doesn't need to be amortized as many passengers as possible. Then you could implement optional stop skipping. At the end of the spectrum you have Uber X ie taxi with ride sharing.
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robertlagrant ◴[21 Aug 24 09:29 UTC] No.41308434[source]▶
What's the cost of the driver vs fuel/maintenance/capital cost of bus?
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1. xethos ◴[21 Aug 24 17:43 UTC] No.41312467[source]▶
Respectfully, this is a trick question. The driver isn't exclusively there to drive, they help tourists that ask "Can I get to X, or do I need another bus?". They help wheelchair users, they know to wait extra time when cyclists need to collect their bikes from the front bus rack. They know when to pull poles (and reattach them) on trolley buses in Vancouver (where I hail from). They report fare-dodgers, they radio control saying their bus is too full to pick up anyone waiting at the stop, and most importantly: they write down what goes wrong during their day, so maintenance knows what to fix when the bus is at the garage.

Seriously, Translink runs on a 28-hour day for bus service. If you want someone to test every single system, especially someone that knows how a system should work vs how it does work vs how it failed on this particular bus, you already have an employee for the job; one that's doing customer service and working around any shortcomings at the same time.

I would not count on bus drivers being replaced by AI any time soon.