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219 points skadamat | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.393s | source
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xnorswap ◴[] No.41301135[source]
My favourite corollary of this is that even if you win the lottery jackpot, then you win less than the average lottery winner.

Average Jackpot prize is JackpotPool/Average winners.

Average Jackpot prize given you win is JackpotPool/(1+Average winners).

The number of expected other winners on the date you win is the same as the average number of winners. Your winning ticket doesn't affect the average number of winners.

This is similar to the classroom paradox where there are more winners when the prize is poorly split, so the average observed jackpot prize is less than the average jackpot prize averaged over events.

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pif ◴[] No.41301213[source]
> The number of expected other winners on the date you win is the same as the average number of winners.

Sorry, but no! The total number of expected winners (including you) is the same as the average number of winners.

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cortesoft ◴[] No.41301876[source]
To understand why your totally understandable conclusion is wrong, it helps me to think about what it means to determine the average number of other winners when I win.

The reason is similar to the Monty Hall Problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem)

To understand, lets think about the simplest representation of this problem... 2 people playing the lottery, and a 50/50 chance to win.

So, we can map out all the possible combinations:

A wins (50%) and B wins (50%) - 25% of the time

A wins (50%) and B loses (50%) - 25% of the time

A loses (50%) and B wins (50%) - 25% of the time

A loses (50%) and B loses (50%) - 25% of the time

So we have 4 even outcomes, so to figure out the average number of winners, we just add up the total number of winners in all the situations and divide by 4... so two winners in the first scenario, plus one winner in scenario 2, plus one winner in scenario 3, and zero winners in scenario 4, for 4 total winners in all situations... divide that by 4, and we see we have an average of 1 winner per scenario.

This makes sense... with 50/50 chance of winning with 2 people leads to an average of 1 winner per draw.

Now lets see what happens if we check for situations where player A wins; in our example, that is the first two scenarios. We throw out scenario 3 and 4, since player A loses in those two scenarios.

So scenario one has 2 winners (A + B) while scenario two has 1 winner (just A)... so in two (even probability) outcomes where A is a winner, we have a total of 3 winners... divide that 3 by the two scenarios, and we get an average of 1.5 winners per scenario where A is a winner.

Why does this happen? In this simple example it is easy to see why... we removed the 1/4 chance where we have ZERO winners, which was bringing down the average.

This same thing happens no matter how many players and what the odds are... by selecting only the scenarios where a specific player wins, we are removing all the possible outcomes where zero people win.

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FabHK ◴[] No.41302670[source]
Nice. And, say the lottery jackpot is a constant 6$, then the average winning per player is 3$ (case 1) or 6$ (case 2) or 6$ (case 3), each equally likely (case 4 is not applicable), so $5.

However, if A wins, A wins either $3 (case 1) or $6 (case 2), so A's expected winnings are $4.5, which is indeed < $5, as GGP asserted.

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kgwgk ◴[] No.41303435[source]
The "average lottery winner" also wins $4.5 though. (The original claim was that "if you win the lottery jackpot, then you win less than the average lottery winner".)

If there are 100 draws with a $6 jackpot 25 will have no winners, 50 will have one ($6) winner and 25 will have two ($3 each) winners.

100 winners in total - half won $6 and half won $3.

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FabHK ◴[] No.41310193[source]
You are correct. So, the statement should not be "if you win the lottery jackpot, then you win less than the average lottery winner", but "if you win the lottery jackpot, then you win less than lottery winners win on average"?
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1. kgwgk ◴[] No.41310574[source]
When you win the lottery you win on average what lottery winners win on average when they win the lottery.

One may find ways to define things differently so something is less than something else but I’m not sure what’s the point in doing so.