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The waiting time paradox: why is my bus always late? (2018)

(jakevdp.github.io)
219 points skadamat | 1 comments | 20 Aug 24 13:55 UTC | HN request time: 0.203s | source
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xnorswap ◴[20 Aug 24 15:50 UTC] No.41301135[source]▶
My favourite corollary of this is that even if you win the lottery jackpot, then you win less than the average lottery winner.

Average Jackpot prize is JackpotPool/Average winners.

Average Jackpot prize given you win is JackpotPool/(1+Average winners).

The number of expected other winners on the date you win is the same as the average number of winners. Your winning ticket doesn't affect the average number of winners.

This is similar to the classroom paradox where there are more winners when the prize is poorly split, so the average observed jackpot prize is less than the average jackpot prize averaged over events.

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1. ruuda ◴[20 Aug 24 23:07 UTC] No.41305006[source]▶
Another one is that your friends on average have more friends than you. (Because you are more likely to be friends with people who have many friends than with people who have few friends.)