Is that correct? I thought the Roko's Basilisk post was just seen as really stupid. Agreed that "Lena" is a great, chilling story though.
He knows that can't possibly work, right? Implicitly it assumes perfect invulnerability to any method of coercion, exploitation, subversion, or suffering that can be invented by an intelligence sufficiently superhuman to have escaped its natal light cone.
There may exist forms of life in this universe for which such an assumption is safe. Humanity circa 2024 seems most unlikely to be among them.
Acausal blackmail only works if one agent U predicts the likely future (or, otherwise not-yet-having-causal-influence) existence of another agent V, who would take actions so that if U’s actions aren’t in accordance with V’s preferences, then V’s actions will do harm to U(‘s interests) (eventually). But, this only works if U predicts the likely possible existence of V and V’s blackmail.
If V is having a causal influence of U, in order to do the blackmail, that’s just ordinary coercion. And, if U doesn’t anticipate the existence (and preferences) of V, then U won’t cooperate with any such attempts at acausal blackmail.
(… is “blackmail” really the right word? It isn’t like there’s a threat to reveal a secret, which I typically think of as central to the notion of blackmail.)