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Bayesian Statistics: The three cultures

(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)
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prmph ◴[] No.41083029[source]
So my theory is that probability is an ill-defined, unfalsifiable concept. And yet, it _seems_ to model aspects of the world pretty well, empirically. However, might it be leading us astray?

Consider the statement p(X) = 0.5 (probability of event X is 0.5). What does this actually mean? It it a proposition? If so, is it falsifiable? And how?

If it is not a proposition, what does it actually mean? If someone with more knowledge can chime in here, I'd be grateful. I've got much more to say on this, but only after I hear from those with a rigorous grounding the theory.

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1. kgwgk ◴[] No.41083141[source]
> If it is not a proposition, what does it actually mean?

It's a measure of plausibility - enabling plausible reasoning.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KN3BYDkWei9ADXnBy/e-t-jaynes...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem