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346 points BirAdam | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.414s | source
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martinpw ◴[] No.39945361[source]
Whenever this topic comes up there are always comments saying that SGI was taken by surprise by cheap hardware and if only they had seen it coming they could have prepared for it and managed it.

I was there around 97 (?) and remember everyone in the company being asked to read the book "The Innovator's Dilemma", which described exactly this situation - a high end company being overtaken by worse but cheaper competitors that improved year by year until they take the entire market. The point being that the company was extremely aware of what was happening. It was not taken by surprise. But in spite of that, it was still unable to respond.

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mrandish ◴[] No.39946158[source]
You highlight one of the most interesting (and perhaps less understood things) about the key Innovator's Dilemma insight. Even if the senior management have read the Innovator's Dilemma books, know they are being catastrophically disrupted and desperately trying to respond - it's still incredibly difficult to actually do.

Not only are virtually all organizational processes and incentives fundamentally aligned against effectively responding, the best practices, patterns and skill sets of most managers at virtually every level are also counter to what they must do to effectively respond. Having been a serial tech startup founder for a couple decades, I then sold one of my startups to a valley tech giant and ended up on the senior leadership team there for a decade. I'd read Innovator's Dilemma in the 90s and now I've now seen it play out from both sides, so I've thought about it a lot. My key takeaway is that an incumbent's lack of effective response to disruption isn't necessarily due to a lack of awareness, conviction or errors in execution. Sure, there are many examples where that's the case but the perverse thing about I.D. is that it can be nearly impossible for the incumbent to effectively respond - even if they recognize the challenge early, commit fully to responding and then do everything within their power perfectly.

I've even spent time sort of "theory crafting" how a big incumbent could try to "harden" themselves in advance against potential disruption. The fundamental challenge is that you end up having to devote resources and create structures which actually make the big incumbent less good at being a big incumbent far in advance of the disruptive threat appearing. It's hard enough to start hardcore, destructive chemo treatment when you actually have cancer. Starting chemo while you're still perfectly healthy and there's literally no evidence of the threat seems crazy. It looks like management incompetence and could arguably be illegal in a publicly traded company ("best efforts to maximize/preserve shareholder value" etc).

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1. kjkjadksj ◴[] No.39953420[source]
I wonder if any major companies have experimented with an internal “red team” startup? It would be on level playing field with your upstart competitors, free from existing hierarchy and structure to develop disruptive tech like any other startup, only you are bankrolling them which gives them a head and shoulders boost relative to any other startup. Eventually you can let this startup grow to be more dominant than the old company and repeat the process with the next disruptive technology.
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2. JustLurking2022 ◴[] No.39953785[source]
As a thought experiment, let's say Facebook did this.

The red team designs a new streamlined look with less click baity posts and fewer ads. Users flock to it, abandoning the existing platform. The new platform isn't monetized as effectively as the old one so revenue drops by billions per year - maybe an order of magnitude more than the new product brings in. Shareholders demand an answer as to what management are doing about it.

There might be some golden path, but that typically relies on finding a new market that doesn't interfere with the existing business (e.g. AWS and Amazon). However, the far easier options are a) shutdown the new service or b) increase its monetization, thereby starting the enshitification cycle.

3. telesilla ◴[] No.39953820[source]
I've seen this in several mid-size companies but the trick to success is that you make a start-up in another vertical so your existing customers aren't dropping their contracts for the cheaper thing you disrupt yourself with. You're building a new business for the same market that already know you, so you can capitalize on your brand, using revenue from a dying but profitable model.