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1071 points mtlynch | 12 comments | | HN request time: 1.86s | source | bottom
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tgtweak ◴[] No.39399561[source]
I think people (and the founder) are focusing on yearly profits as their remuneration and comparing it to a salary... but the reality is you're creating a company that should be valued (and eventually sell) for 7-15X Earnings - and you really should be looking at that increase in value vs your increase in profits. In reality your net worth went up by over $1.5 million in the last year, in addition to earning 236k - that is the actual value you created for yourself in the last year and not the 236k you cashflowed.

I find it redeeming that despite having a gift for development - software and hardware - the biggest factors affecting profitability and growth here are things that most MBAs would do in a business quite regularly (outsourcing design/packaging/fulfillment, streamlining costs, doing price elasticity experiments, polling customers and markets for product improvement).

I enjoyed seeing the inverted perspective that product/engineering is straightforward and low risk but things like optimizing fulfillment and operating costs is a new exciting endeavor.

One tip I suggest doing is leveraging google ads to figure out features that customers are willing to pay for before you build them... if they're clicking the ad they are searching for it and interested in buying it. Start a few very low cap campaigns calling out features you are thinking of building into the product, and see which one get's the most impressions and clicks per marketing dollar and focus on that. The added advantage is you know it will be easier to buy advertising for it once the feature is done.

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awhitby ◴[] No.39400566[source]
You're missing something. From the post:

> I don’t draw a salary, so the total amount I earned from TinyPilot in 2023 was $236k.

and

> Result: I worked 35-40 hours per week, a reduction from previous years, and traveled more than any previous year.

This is a person who is effectively full-time CEO of this business and whose market salary is likely at least $236k. If they sold the business, the new owners would have to pay someone else to put in those 35 hours.

Maybe the new owner could employ a less-skilled manager and pay them less, or maybe there's still lots of potential growth or room to cut costs, but that's all quite speculative: right now the business has a profit, and therefore a valuation, closer to zero.

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csa ◴[] No.39401686[source]
> right now the business has a profit, and therefore a valuation, closer to zero

You’re thinking of this like an engineer rather than a business person.

1. When selling a business like this, the $236k would be called SDI or SDE (seller discretionary income/earnings).

2. The buyer determines what, if any, of that SDE will need to go to paying someone to do what the seller does. These duties could be assumed by the buyer, they could be assumed by existing people the buyer employees, the tasks could be reduced or eliminated, etc.

3. Based on 2, the buyer will typically adjust the earnings multiple that they are willing to buy at.

4. For complex businesses that need someone doing one or more specific roles, the listing agency for the business, if good, will encourage the seller to fill certain roles to improve the overall salability of the business and multiple of earnings that it will be sold at.

5. Without really looking into the business, I’m almost certain that it can be sold for much closer to $1m (or more!) than to your suggestion of (edit) closer to $0.

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danielmarkbruce ◴[] No.39401974[source]
He's thinking about it like a business person who is looking at buying a business. It's worth close to zero. In it's current state this business is not an asset, it's a organization doing stuff.

Breaking it out into SDE + adjustment is what the comment already does, albeit without using that terminology.

One cannot hire a person who can do all the things this owner does. The person is a smart former google engineer. These people don't grow on trees. It would take a few people to do a bad approximation of what he does. The adjustment to SDE is going to be 100's of k and you get to 0 cash thrown off.

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csa ◴[] No.39402132[source]
> It's worth close to zero.

Serious question… have you bought a business before?

It’s what I do.

This business is not worth close to zero, and the stuff that the current owner does (even if he’s some miracle worker, which xooglers aren’t guaranteed to be) can be handled any number of ways that cost less than $236k by some buyer. This may not mean you or the person that I replied to, but you two most likely aren’t a part (and certainly not a significant part) of the market of buyers for businesses like this.

I can’t tell if you’re circle jerking the owner, xooglers, or the (limiting) engineering way of thinking about businesses.

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windowshopping ◴[] No.39402849[source]
You should write something about what you do too. Buying businesses sounds interesting, can you expand on this?
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1. csa ◴[] No.39403449[source]
> You should write something about what you do too.

I think most of what one needs to know is already out there. The key is being adaptable to the current environment and being aware of one’s value add (skill set, network, etc.).

The problem with writing specifics about what I do is that it invites competitors and/or haters (e.g., review bombers or DDoSers). Some parts of my businesses have enough moat such that I don’t care, but other parts definitely do not. It’s not something I want to spend additional brain cycles on.

> Buying businesses sounds interesting, can you expand on this?

It’s largely not. It’s financially comfortable, and it’s nice being your own boss / leading your own team if that’s what you’re into (I am), but I’ve done more interesting work while working for “The Man”. A lot of what I do is just streamline a system that was inefficiently run/managed.

What I do is very similar to what Andrew Wilkinson of TinyCo has done, except I am about 10 years back on his timeline, and I’m not sure I will end up going public. I recommend looking for interviews and podcasts with Andrew — I have found them to be super interesting.

In relatively vague terms, I started a web dev agency, and then used that cash flow to start buying businesses that generate additional cash flow. Rinse and repeat. This is exactly what Andrew did. Note that I didn’t learn about Andrew until last year, so I was happy to see someone taking a similar path and scaling to a holding co worth over half a billion.

Some things that I think folks don’t do well when buying and/or valuing businesses (both buyers and sellers):

- Keep an active deal flow pipeline, ideally one that is not widely tapped. This usually entails talking to people… lots of people. For example, finding solid businesses on FEI is possible, but they will be very competitively priced, and it will be prudent to have some sort of pocket growth “hack” in mind if you want to make it pay off handsomely. On the other hand, targeting some “mom and pops” that have little or no idea about SEO and SEM can present some soft deals.

- Figure out ways that one party can scale that others can’t. This is the type of “growth hack” that I mentioned above. I know one guy who has one main move. He looks for businesses in which he already buys some of their inputs at a huge volume discount that smaller businesses can’t access (supplements are an example of this… I don’t recommend getting into supplements unless you are already eyeballs deep in that world). Another example is having access to markets or distribution that the businesses you are targeting to buy don’t have. One area I target (when relevant) that many others don’t is East Asian markets. Another area I target is just increasing prices (usually via segmentation). So many businesses charge way less than the market will bear.

- Learn how to negotiate, including how to say no. Many people just lay down and leave a ton of money on the table. You don’t have to be an asshole about it, but it’s prudent to be aware of what the value is for both the buyer and the seller, and it’s not uncommon for the buyer to have significant upside potential.

- As someone else said, you’re basically turning over a lot of rocks. There are a lot of people trying to bamboozle you, and there are a lot of solid businesses that don’t really offer a growth opportunity that you can efficiently maximize. When you find something that fits, it’s often a no-brainer.

Let me know if you have any other questions. I will be happy to answer.

I will add as a caveat that I can only give you perspective from my limited experiences — there are myriad ways to buy and sell businesses profitably, and my path is only one of them.

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2. ilamont ◴[] No.39405661[source]
What is your take on ecommerce businesses that generate most revenue from a single platform, e.g. Amazon or Shein or TikTok?

It seems like a lot of concentrated risk, and scaling is a challenge, considering the number of Amazon roll-ups that were on fire 2020-2021 and are now on the ropes (See "Amazon aggregators fall on tough times", https://www.axios.com/2023/09/05/amazon-aggregators-tough-ti...)

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3. windowshopping ◴[] No.39405832[source]
Idk, optimizing inefficient systems sounds a lot more interesting to me than working for the man, as you put it. Thanks for writing this out. It seems very difficult to get into. I'll reread this a couple times.
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4. csa ◴[] No.39405905[source]
> What is your take on ecommerce businesses that generate most revenue from a single platform, e.g. Amazon or Shein or TikTok?

It’s not something I do due to the “concentrated risk” you mentioned. Scaling can be done, sometimes quite easily and effectively (e.g., Amazon ads can be quite efficient at scaling).

In general, I try to avoid or minimize exposure to capricious single points of failure, especially in sales/marketing, production, and/or distribution. I consider most large tech companies to fall into the capricious category unless I have someone on the inside who can make things right for me. This access to insiders is not as robust as I would like, but I’m working on it.

All that said, I know plenty of quite successful business owners who have gone all in on a single platform like Amazon or YT.

Regarding the roll ups, i think many of the businesses were bought at unreasonably high values. The linked article refers to this.

Covid changed many markets, in some ways permanent, and in other ways temporary. I was passing a lot on what I considered unreasonable prices for certain businesses. I could have played hot potato, but there was no reason to do so.

5. csa ◴[] No.39406105[source]
> Idk, optimizing inefficient systems sounds a lot more interesting to me

Yeah, I guess I’m being somewhat disingenuous. I like optimizing systems, but I’m aware that it’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

You learn that very quickly at cocktail parties when people ask you what you do, ask for more than the headline answer, and then have their eyes glaze over when you get into the details.

> than working for the man, as you put it.

As a nerd/geek, and I fall into that category, working in a good skunk works type of place is pretty damn fun. It usually doesn’t pay well compared to most tech jobs, it’s often not that prestigious, but damn… it can sometimes tickle the brain like no other.

One potentially bad part of it is that most skunk works are funded in some way by the DoD, so some folks may object to that.

> Thanks for writing this out.

My pleasure.

> It seems very difficult to get into.

Hmm… my first instinct is to say that it’s not, but I might be short-selling my skills, network, and (frankly) privilege if I say that.

I think it’s open to far larger group than is actively trying to participate in it.

I think the main keys are:

- Understand fundamentals of business. I have been around this my whole life, so it came quite naturally to me. That said, it’s learnable, and a lot of things fall into the common sense or empathy categories.

- Be good at contracting and hiring/firing. There are a lot of bozos in the workforce, but there are also plenty of hidden gems.

- Be good at marketing/sales. Although it’s possible, I think it’s tough to hide behind a screen and also scale.

- Talk to your customers. PG beats this drum, and there’s a good reason. Note customers here are customers of any business you own as well as business you want to buy or entities you want to sell a business to.

- Start small, but do things that scale. People think you need a lot of money to start doing this. You don’t. If you do really well, you don’t have to ask around much before relatively large sums of money start finding you. I currently prefer to self-fund, but I’m thinking about transitioning to some sort of dividend growth entity — I think that they will be en vogue in certain circles over the next 10 years or so.

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6. windowshopping ◴[] No.39406730{3}[source]
It seems like you enjoy talking about this - is there an email I could reach you at to have a longer conversation at some point down the line? I'm really interested in just about everything pertaining to your experience. If you'd rather not post yours, you could email me directly at [redacted].
7. elbear ◴[] No.39407718[source]
I have a feeling a lot of the lessons you learned could also apply to developers who want to be better at freelancing (my case). But I don't know if there is a way to pass down that knowledge while you also get something out of it.

For what is worth, I appreciated your comments in this thread.

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8. _xk9i ◴[] No.39416581[source]
For freelancers who want to improve (it was my case years ago), the best book is "The Secrets of Consulting", by Gerald Weinberg.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/566213.The_Secrets_of_Co...

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9. borlanco ◴[] No.39416649{3}[source]
Quite difficult to be like you. In any case, much obliged to you, sir!
10. elbear ◴[] No.39420679{3}[source]
Thank you for making me aware of this author. I see he has several books on topics I find valuable.
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11. borlanco ◴[] No.39424779{4}[source]
I am glad I was able to help you.

If you like "The Secrets of Consulting", the next one for you should be "Exploring requirements: quality before design", by Gause & Weinberg. What an eye opener it was for me!

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12. elbear ◴[] No.39451468{5}[source]
Noted.