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186 points drak0n1c | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.205s | source
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baron816 ◴[] No.38483871[source]
I’ve been watching a bunch of these videos where they war game realistic and pretty far fetched battle scenarios https://youtube.com/@grimreapers?si=lvRNWBee9RfnkxBI. They’ll cover stuff like a Chinese carrier group vs a US carrier group using slightly futuristic weapons. What often decides the outcomes of battles are the accuracy of ships’ air defenses and how many missiles they have onboard.

Shooting down supersonic, hypersonic, and stealth missiles is hard. You may need to fire multiple anti-air missile just to hit one attacking anti-ship missile. But doing so depletes your magazine faster and it can just come down to who has more ammo.

If you’re able to fire a couple anti-air missiles, and then recover the ones that miss, or have them loiter and acquire a new target, I could see that as being an advantage.

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Maxion ◴[] No.38484085[source]
> What often decides the outcomes of battles are the accuracy of ships’ air defenses and how many missiles they have onboard.

I always do wonder how realistic these war games actually are?

They (at least the war games that are public) always assume at least one or both sides are near 100% competent with their systems.

The Ukraine war has at least showed that that is not the case, the best example perhaps being the sinking of the Moskva, or the multitude of times Ukraine has managed to pierce Russian air defenses (who, mind you, has the most AD of anyone).

I'm pretty certain that a lot of these war game scenarios, of played out in real life, wouldn't play out the same way. There'd be miscommunication, technical issues with equipment, massive total surprise on both sides and so forth.

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victorbjorklund ◴[] No.38484202[source]
I don't think war games are meant to actually predict outcomes (even if media etc often wanna draw those conclusions). Rather it is to create scenarios to plan for and then it makes sense to ask "if the chinese act perfect when it comes to their systems and doctrine, how do we counter that?". If you can respond to someone acting perfectly you can probably also respond to someone with less skills.
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1. meheleventyone ◴[] No.38484295[source]
Also to practice the response, you have people with roles that are extremely hard to practice because they involve mass-coordination that rarely happens in reality but you still want them to have some prior competence at. The goal is often to make their simulated experience ‘realistic’ even if the model is fraying at the edges. All models are wrong but some are useful and all that.