Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

I know this isn't what happened, but what if one day I'm waiting for the bus and I over hear a guy talking on their phone about an imminent acquisition?

1. Would that still fall under insider trading even if the information was accidentally heard, and even if I wasn't 100% sure of its accuracy?

2. If I had no clear connection to the company how would it be proven that I was trading on insider information? Surely it's not enough just to say the trade was statistically unlikely, or is it?

I've thought about this type of question a fair bit. I'd even go one step further and ask what if you're in a position where you might hear about this stuff now and then (but not in a way that's easily provable, say you regularly take a train at the same time as an M&A lawyer that you shouldersurf) and you semi-regularly buy $1,0000ish (of variable amounts) in low-DTE options basically on no information - the whole purpose of it is you're buying 'insurance' where you're paying some% premium for obviously -EV trades.

You do this for months (hopefully without your M&A 'friend' swapping jobs or going WFH) before you shoulder surf that a publicly traded company is being acquired at some massive premium and spear the whale for low-DTE calls within 2S.D. of your normal range.

If you get investigated you can just say that you regularly take these kinds of punts for fun. You've got a record to prove it. You've got no contact with people in these positions, you can provide your entire social calendar and contact list and be probably many steps removed.

FWIW I keep all my money in some individual stocks and index funds. I just think this kind of hypothetical is a pretty fun situation to try to optimize for.