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Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

(twitter.com)
417 points mkmk | 8 comments | 21 Sep 23 15:58 UTC | HN request time: 0.906s | source | bottom
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scarmig ◴[21 Sep 23 16:51 UTC] No.37600401[source]▶
Go directly to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $10M.
replies(3): >>37600415 #>>37600568 #>>37600880 #
1. zht ◴[21 Sep 23 17:02 UTC] No.37600568[source]▶
isn't it closer to 400k?
replies(4): >>37600616 #>>37600617 #>>37600633 #>>37602290 #
2. scarmig ◴[21 Sep 23 17:06 UTC] No.37600616[source]▶
$22k * ($18.30/$0.04) = $10.065M
3. mrjaeger ◴[21 Sep 23 17:06 UTC] No.37600617[source]▶
I think $10M is right. The options cost $0.04 each yesterday (per the tweet), so spending $22,000 would get you 550000 options. Those options are now worth $18.30 (per the tweet) for a total value of ~$10M.
replies(2): >>37600733 #>>37602470 #
4. msdrigg ◴[21 Sep 23 17:07 UTC] No.37600633[source]▶
22K * 45560 / 100 = 10023200
5. quickthrowman ◴[21 Sep 23 17:13 UTC] No.37600733[source]▶
An option contract with an ask of $0.04 costs $4. The trader bought 5500 options for $4 and they’re now worth $1830, so it’s still a $10M profit.

The listed option price is the price per share, and a standard option contract is 100 shares of exposure.

replies(1): >>37602267 #
6. mrb ◴[21 Sep 23 18:54 UTC] No.37602267{3}[source]▶
No, the trader bought 260 options. See second photo in the tweet, first row, column "volume". 260 options times $4 equals $1,040 invested, which turned into $475k.
7. mrb ◴[21 Sep 23 18:55 UTC] No.37602290[source]▶
You are correct. The amount "$22,000" purchased options quoted in the tweet is not supported by the screenshots which show 260 options were purchased, for a total of $1,040, which is now worth $475k. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37602079
8. kawhah ◴[21 Sep 23 19:06 UTC] No.37602470[source]▶
None of the images in the tweet show either premium of $22k or 5,500 option contracts (eg options on 550,000 shares). What am I missing?

The screenshots seem to show a total traded volume for yesterday of 260 contracts (26,000 shares), way smaller than what was suggested.

Furthermore, nothing makes it clear that these were all the same person. And the open interest went down that day so at least some of this volume was buying to cover.