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255 points tbruckner | 5 comments | | HN request time: 0.457s | source
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adam_arthur ◴[] No.37420461[source]
Even a linear growth rate of average RAM capacity would obviate the need to run current SOTA LLMs remotely in short order.

Historically average RAM has grown far faster than linear, and there really hasn't been anything pressing manufacturers to push the envelope here in the past few years... until now.

It could be that LLM model sizes keep increasing such that we continue to require cloud consumption, but I suspect the sizes will not increase as quickly as hardware for inference.

Given how useful GPT-4 is already. Maybe one more iteration would unlock the vast majority of practical use cases.

I think people will be surprised that consumers ultimately end up benefitting far more from LLMs than the providers. There's not going to be much moat or differentiation to defend margins... more of a race to the bottom on pricing

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MuffinFlavored ◴[] No.37421214[source]
> Given how useful GPT-4 is already. Maybe one more iteration would unlock the vast majority of practical use cases.

Unless I'm misunderstanding, doesn't OpenAI have a very vested interest to keep making their products so good/so complex/so large that consumer hobbyists can't just `git clone` an alternative that's 95% as good running locally?

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Frannyies ◴[] No.37421454[source]
They have a huge cost incentive to optimize it for runtime.

The magic of openai is their training data and architecture.

There is a real risk that a model gets leaked.

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1. slt2021 ◴[] No.37421998[source]
it is not really a moat if one engineer can leave openai with all the secret sauce in his head and replicate it elsewhere (anthropic?)
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2. foobiekr ◴[] No.37422647[source]
Name one software-based tech company where this isn’t true.
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3. slt2021 ◴[] No.37423025[source]
microsoft? gogel? FB?
4. Frannyies ◴[] No.37423076[source]
I only meant the trained model.

You would need to steal it all over again as soon as the next model is trained.

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5. slt2021 ◴[] No.37424110[source]
no need to steal the model if training process can be reliably replicated/adopted in clean room implementation with additional optimisations.

startup as legal entity has close to 0 value, most value is in intellectual property which is stored and transmitted by meatbags.