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447 points Brajeshwar | 3 comments | 03 Sep 23 14:53 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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pard68 ◴[03 Sep 23 17:47 UTC] No.37372440[source]▶
I have never figured out how average global temperatures can be such a sure thing. Where I live (rural US) temperature forecasts for "right now" are always off, sometimes by three or four degrees. Currently the NWS says it's 98dF out, while my own thermometer reads 79dF, almost 20 degrees off!

I imagine this inaccuracy is because the nearest stations are over four hours away. I also imagine four hours to the nearest station is common for a large portion of the globe. I suspect this difference in forecasted temperature and the actual temperature is increasingly large the further back you go in time.

It seems like there is a lot of noise and dirty data to be so confident about a couple degree increase.

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gyanreyer ◴[03 Sep 23 17:56 UTC] No.37372549[source]▶
I think we have more than enough data points around the globe to say that the temperature increase is statistically significant. Rural USA is not the center of the world where all temperature measurements should be based on.
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pard68 ◴[03 Sep 23 18:22 UTC] No.37372838[source]▶
I suspect you missed my point
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1. wredue ◴[03 Sep 23 19:38 UTC] No.37373636[source]▶
Your point is to insert noise in to a conversation that you have zero scientific background in.

You’re not bringing up points that experts are failing to comprehend. You’re just trying to muddy the waters.

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2. pard68 ◴[03 Sep 23 19:54 UTC] No.37373814[source]▶
Do you normally find questions to be attacks?
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3. teaearlgraycold ◴[03 Sep 23 22:06 UTC] No.37375042[source]▶
Yes, when the topic is politicized