If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
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Unfortunately, I think things are just getting started.
Why is Belarus performing provocations on the Polish border? Seems to me that Lukashenko is either doing it for himself, or for Putin. I can't see why he'd be doing it for himself. He might see Poland, flawed but still something of a democracy, as a threat to inspire those seeking democracy in Belarus.
But it seems to me to be more likely that he's doing it for Putin. (This also might involve Wagner going to Belarus, not to escape Russia after the coup attempt, but in order to do a job for Russia.) But what's the point? Belarus isn't going to conquer Poland. Russia's not going to conquer the Baltics. So what's going on?
If this is all a master plan, I think it's most likely that Putin is trying to create a war (or at least a real threat of war) with NATO, to give him an excuse to call for a mass mobilization in Russia. This in turn will give him enough force to at least keep what he has in Ukraine. (He's gambling - almost certainly correctly - that NATO has no stomach for anything beyond defending themselves. Think of the "Phony War" phase of the western front in WWII.)
If I'm right, this is an extremely dangerous game that Putin is playing. Wagner could get out of hand (it already did once). The war could escalate. The Russian population could get fed up. The Russian elites could get fed up.
But Putin may feel that he has no choice, because otherwise he would lose power, and because he may not survive a fall from power.
(Wow, this has gone really far afield from a discussion of a promising cancer drug!)
Plus creating chaos in general seems part of the goal. Russia was losing (well, lost) hegemony in Ukraine post 2014, but damned if it's going to permit its success outside of of Russian control. Absolutely laying waste to Ukraine will not bring Ukraine back under Russian influence and has turned even formerly pro-Russian people in places like Odessa into Ukrainian nationalists. But this matters little to them, because Putin/Lavrov have already clearly bargained on losing them. ... So instead, create chaos not only in Ukraine but across all of Europe, making an example out of them and sewing destruction in order to prevent further splintering of Russian influence.
And it plays well to the domestic audience, and to the blindly "stick it to the West" types. Bitter ethnic animosity between Russians and Poles works for jingoistic demagogues on both sides of the border. Talking shit about Poland keeps Putin's domestic support strong. And (basically explicitly fascist) Wagner's philosophy of might-makes-right and chaos-making clearly plays well to the audience at home, so two birds one stone, sticking Wagner next to Poland to rattle some sabres.
The question is whether ultimately NATO falls for Lukashenko and Putin's stupid trap, and the next time a provocation like this happens, a helicopter or two is obliterated or a ship in the Black Sea is sunk (again), and then the hyper-nationalist audience at home can froth at the mouth some more and Putin's ratings go even higher.
But I think NATO leaders are smart enough to see the provocations for what they are.
A downfalling desperate Putin is likely to cause serious damage with nuclear weapons. I think should be very cautios, but am not suggesting we should giving in to his his nuclear erection. The doomsday clock is 90 seconds to midnight for a reason.
Planes from Belarus flew into Polish airspace, and Lukashenko has threatened that Wagner troops are eager to enter Poland.
I think the Russian populaiton is still largely supporting Putin and eating his propaganda on bread every morning and evening from state media channels.
Some of them who are fed up cannot do anything about it as they can face extremely harsh punishments.
The elites may be sick of it, they lost a lot of ‘business’ since the start of the military operation, and from time to time another one bites the dust from an open window high up on a building.
And there are factions within Russia that fight one another and yet they are somehow all in support of Putin.
My guess is what would likely happen is NATO would yell loudly, look like it was ineffective and couldn't decide what to do, but in reality suddenly "Ukraine" would suddenly sink some expensive big ships in the Black Sea or take down a strategic bomber or two, using advanced US/European weaponry, and NATO would shrug and say "Huh. Neat. Wasn't us tho"
It's just a threat to make west slightly less likely to help Ukraine for real. If people stopped falling for it 10 years earlier we wouldn't have been in this predicament, millions of people and billions of USD would be saved. All that was needed was to accept Ukraine into NATO or do serious response to 2008 and 2014 russian invasions.
So Putin's plan is just to create problems and confusion using Lukashenko as a proxy. These immigrants have been there for more than a year and he is still bringing new ones.
So the interesting question here that many people ask is, what game is Lukashenko playing here? I saw many comments that he just pretends he is stupid but in fact he is quite intelligent and he's doing what he can to keep his country as far away from war as possible. At the same time, he needs some tension and external enemy to help him keep the power (at least among the ~20% of Belorussians who actually believe the official propaganda and support him).
I very much hope I will live long enough to see the day when Belorussians finally get their freedom in a peaceful way and can enjoy living in peace, doing business with other countries and just be happy. I know many of them, they are very nice people, it's such a pity they need to go through this shit.
Of course, there _is_ a line, and Russia will probe to see where that is, but they won't cross it.
It's yet another reason why NATO is so firmly bound to supporting Ukraine. Before the opening of direct hostilities there, Russia engaged in all sorts of shit in the west with no consequences. Cyber attacks and surveillance stuff, but actually doing things like brazenly poisoning people on NATO soil and in the process killing UK civilians. Or shooting down civilian airliners. And never paying any consequence because we were afraid of war.
Well, now there's a war, but we don't have to be directly involved with the threat of nukes and cruise missiles hitting our cities...
The one place where I do see risk of the line being crossed is in the Black Sea. I'm disappointed that Turkey and NATO have not taken a firmer line. I hope/expect to see a stronger response to events like what happened in the port on the Danube a couple days ago.
It makes no sense for Russia to be allowed to control the waters outside of its territory on a sea where the coastline is filled with NATO countries.
If there is a serious flare up, it will be there, and naval.
Seconded. I had such high hopes that they could push it through the last time around and what really irks me is that there are enough Belorussians still that keep this jackass in power, and that they will prioritize their own financial well being over their fellow citizens' lives. I was in Poland during the Solidarity uprising and I had such high hopes for the rest of the SovBloc but not everybody managed to take advantage of the momentum. Ironically, distance from German capital seems to have been a prime factor in the outcome.